Investors Should Stop Chasing “Crowded” Trades In Emerging Markets

Economist Nouriel Roubini said in an interview out today that investors should stop chasing “crowded” trades in emerging markets. He believes that African markets such as Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania are better bets. The distinction is that such African countries are most often categorized as so-called frontier markets, even smaller and less-developed than emerging markets.

in Barron`s

Portugal And Ireland Will Soon Need The EFSF Or IMF Support.

"Portugal and Ireland will soon need the EFSF or IMF support as they are on the verge of losing market access as bond vigilantes are up in arms."

Nouriel Roubini, November 9th

If Defaults Keep Rising US Banks Will Be Insolvent Again.

"If 11.5 million more households default on their mortgages most US banks would be insolvent again."

Nouriel Roubini, Twitter, November 9

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Going Back To A Gold Standard Is Undesirable.

"Going back to a Gold Standard regime or even global fix exchange rates - as suggested by Zoellick - is both undesirable and a pipe dream."

via Twitter, November 8th

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)

There Will Be More QE Efforts From The Federal Reserve.

Nouriel Roubini weighs in on the Fed's decision to institute a second round of quantitative easing and explains why he thinks we're likely to see further stimulus ahead. Plus, David Wessel and David Reilly on why criticism of QE2 is escalating.

in WSJ

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Employment Report Analysis

Household survey: employment fell 330K last month & labor force participation rate at 25yr low. How does that square with 150K jobs gain?3 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

QE2 Will Fail To Revive The Real Economy

"QE2 will be followed by QE3 and QE4 as QE2 will fail to revive the real economy and to prevent deflationary pressures..."via Twitter for BlackBerry®

If House Prices Keep Falling, We Are Going To Have Another Disaster.

“If house prices are going to fall another 5% to 10%, another eight million households are going to be in negative equity. We are going to have another nasty crisis. That’s going to happen unless we do something about it. Forget about subprime, look at prime.”

in a Cape Town Conference

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM)

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) , Morgan Stanley (MS), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)

Emerging Markets: Prices May Be Running Ahead Of Economic Fundamentals.

“Prices may be running ahead of economic fundamentals. Still, the emerging market party can go on for a while."

Nouriel Roubini, in a Cape Town conference

Related ETF: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

US Fiscal Train Wreck Ahead

Telegraph article: Roubini sees US 'fiscal train wreck' ahead - The US economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen, US economist Nouriel Roubini warned on Friday.

Argentina: The Economic Outlook Is Cloudy Because Of External And Domestic Factors

“While overall economic growth is still robust right now, the economic outlook is cloudy because of external factors and domestic factors. The growth of the economy that is coming from the net export part of the economy is going to weaken over time because global economic growth is slowing down and exports and imports globally are going to slow down.”

With a domestic economy that is driven by mostly domestic demand right now, artificially boosted by easy money, easy credit and easy fiscal policy, and an external sector that so far is doing well, but with the fixed exchange rate and high inflation, the real appreciation is going to lead to a significant weakening of that account.”

Nouriel Roubini, in a Buenos Aires speech, October 27

There Is A Shift Of Economic, Trade And Financial Power To Emerging Economies

"There is a shift of economic, trade and financial power from advanced economies to emerging markets. There's a massive shift in the portfolio preferences of investors to emerging markets and away from advanced markets."

in WSJ

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM) , iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) ,iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI) , WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EPI), iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund (THD), Market Vectors Indonesia Index (ETF) (IDX)

China And US: A Recipe For Trade Wars.

"Having 10% unemployment in U.S. and 10% growth in China is a recipe for trade wars in a situation in which China doesn't allow its currency to appreciate."

Nouriel Roubini, in a speech to Latin American steel industry executives

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) , iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Greece Is Going To Default Or Do A Restructuring Under Pressure.

“If you don’t want to call it default or bankruptcy, call it a restructuring under pressure, but it’s going to happen.”

Nouriel Roubini, in www.ekathimerini.com

Growth Is Slowing Down.

“Some factors that contributed the growth performances of developed economies in the first half 2010 will not continue to exist in the second half, slowing the growth”

Nouriel Roubini, Istambul, October 20th

The ECB Would Rather Kill Any Chance Of The PIIGS Recovery.

“The stubborn ECB would rather kill any chance of the PIIGS recovery rather than consider further QE, which it finds unacceptable, citing the threat of a rise in inflation. Deflation, not inflation, is the risk which plagues the PIIGS."

in CNBC.com

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP), National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE), iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI)

The Risk Of Global Currency And Trade Wars Is Rising

“The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations”

in ictsd.org

Related ETFs: PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP)

Ukraine's Economy Has Started To Recover

"Ukraine's economy has started to recover, although the realization of reforms in the financial and taxation spheres should be accelerated to strengthen the process, according to Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

The economy in Ukraine has started recovering, but crosswinds are still blowing, in particular, the slow recovery of the global economy, as emerging markets are strongly impacted by the global markets, he said. The only way to support Ukraine's economic growth is to accelerate reforms, and in general conduct a proper economic policy to provide resistance to global stresses, he said in Kiev on Tuesday at an investment forum organized by the Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) Group.

He said that Ukraine should cut its budget deficit and clean up its financial system. The expert also said that Ukraine could gain much from direction foreign investment, although the rights of capital owners should be fully protected."

in www.ukrainianjournal.com

The Risk Of A Trade War Is Severe In Relations Between The US And China

“We are in a world where everybody wants to grow through exports. The risk of trade war is severe in relations between the U.S. and China.”

in Bloomberg.com

With 1% Growth You Don`t Create Private Jobs, The Budget Deficit Widens, House Prices Go Down Instead Of Stabilizing

“If growth is only 1 percent, it is going to feel like recession, though technically it will not be a recession. You don’t create private jobs, the budget deficit widens, house prices go down instead of stabilizing.”

in Bloomberg.com

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

There Is Still A Probability Of A Double Dip Recession Or Near Depression, As In Japan In The 90`s

“My base scenario is that we will have a slow, U-shaped recovery in the advanced economies, but still there is a probability of a double-dip recession, or near depression, as in Japan in the 1990s. The recovery in advanced economies is still very tentative.”

in Bloomberg

Roubini Says German Austerity Will Be Fatal for Eurozone

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said Germany’s austerity measures, introduced to fight the aftermath of the financial crisis, are “fatal” for Europe’s largest economy, Capital magazine reported, citing an interview.

Chancellor Angela Merkel should take advantage of Germany’s ability to borrow money cheaply and “should only start to consolidate when the rest of Europe is in better shape,” Roubini is cited as saying.

in Bloomberg.com

Financial Markets Volatility Will Be High. Downside Risk Is Higher Then Upside Risk.

"On the fiscal side, Roubini thinks stimulus on a large scale would still work. However, the chances of that happening are slim. The U.S. budget deficit is already at 10 percent of GDP and debt is close to 95 percent of GDP. Plus, bond vigilantes are waking up and the U.S., like most advanced economies, are in "austerity mode" politically, said Roubini.


In light of this problem, Roubini expects financial market volatility to remain high; the downside risk is greater than the upside risk for equities."

in www.ibtimes.com

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)