Nov 17, 2010

The Real Threats Are Anemic Growth And Deflation, Not Inflation.

"Lets fight real threats - anemic growth, double dip risk, deflation risk - not phantom ghosts of inexistent goods inflation."

Nouriel Roubini, in Twitter

Nov 16, 2010

The Irish Are On A Path To Near Or Complete Insolvency.

"Put simply the Irish – like the Greeks – are on a path to near or complete insolvency. The reason the EU has so far decided to provide emergency financing to Greece and Ireland is not because it lacks a legal mechanism for orderly restructuring; it is rather because of concerns about systemic contagion."

in Financial Times, today

Nov 15, 2010

African Opportunities?

"Africa is risky because there is less liquidity and the governance is not ideal. But in comparison to 10 years ago when there was civil strife and unstable governments, many things have improved."

Nouriel Roubini, in Reuters

"Some of the better economies in Africa: South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda"

in Twitter

Overcapacity In Steel Production Is A Serious Problem.

"The overcapacity in steel production in the world is a serious problem that could lead to trade wars among countries and regions, Nouriel Roubini, the famed economist from New York University's Stern School of Business recently said, according to media reports.

This is a serious problem we have seen in a number of sectors, including steel, where there is overcapacity installed in China and other countries, says Roubini. He also stated that it is leading to a situation where either you don't produce, making factories lose money, or, if you produce at capacity, the increased output falls on weak demand and implies a collapsing price."


in www.indiainfoline.com

Related: United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS), ArcelorMittal (ADR) (NYSE:MT)

Nov 14, 2010

Investors Should Stop Chasing “Crowded” Trades In Emerging Markets

Economist Nouriel Roubini said in an interview out today that investors should stop chasing “crowded” trades in emerging markets. He believes that African markets such as Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania are better bets. The distinction is that such African countries are most often categorized as so-called frontier markets, even smaller and less-developed than emerging markets.

in Barron`s

Nov 10, 2010

Portugal And Ireland Will Soon Need The EFSF Or IMF Support.

"Portugal and Ireland will soon need the EFSF or IMF support as they are on the verge of losing market access as bond vigilantes are up in arms."

Nouriel Roubini, November 9th

Nov 9, 2010

If Defaults Keep Rising US Banks Will Be Insolvent Again.

"If 11.5 million more households default on their mortgages most US banks would be insolvent again."

Nouriel Roubini, Twitter, November 9

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) , Morgan Stanley (MS), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)

Nov 8, 2010

Going Back To A Gold Standard Is Undesirable.

"Going back to a Gold Standard regime or even global fix exchange rates - as suggested by Zoellick - is both undesirable and a pipe dream."

via Twitter, November 8th

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)

There Will Be More QE Efforts From The Federal Reserve.


Nouriel Roubini weighs in on the Fed's decision to institute a second round of quantitative easing and explains why he thinks we're likely to see further stimulus ahead. Plus, David Wessel and David Reilly on why criticism of QE2 is escalating.

in WSJ

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB) , PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT) , PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP)

Nov 5, 2010

Employment Report Analysis

Household survey: employment fell 330K last month & labor force participation rate at 25yr low. How does that square with 150K jobs gain?

Nov 4, 2010

QE2 Will Fail To Revive The Real Economy

"QE2 will be followed by QE3 and QE4 as QE2 will fail to revive the real economy and to prevent deflationary pressures..."

Nov 3, 2010

If House Prices Keep Falling, We Are Going To Have Another Disaster.

“If house prices are going to fall another 5% to 10%, another eight million households are going to be in negative equity. We are going to have another nasty crisis. That’s going to happen unless we do something about it. Forget about subprime, look at prime.”

in a Cape Town Conference

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM)

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) , Morgan Stanley (MS), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)

Nov 2, 2010

Emerging Markets: Prices May Be Running Ahead Of Economic Fundamentals.

“Prices may be running ahead of economic fundamentals. Still, the emerging market party can go on for a while."

Nouriel Roubini, in a Cape Town conference

Related ETF: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

Oct 29, 2010

US Fiscal Train Wreck Ahead

Telegraph article: Roubini sees US 'fiscal train wreck' ahead - The US economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen, US economist Nouriel Roubini warned on Friday.

Oct 28, 2010

Argentina: The Economic Outlook Is Cloudy Because Of External And Domestic Factors

“While overall economic growth is still robust right now, the economic outlook is cloudy because of external factors and domestic factors. The growth of the economy that is coming from the net export part of the economy is going to weaken over time because global economic growth is slowing down and exports and imports globally are going to slow down.”

With a domestic economy that is driven by mostly domestic demand right now, artificially boosted by easy money, easy credit and easy fiscal policy, and an external sector that so far is doing well, but with the fixed exchange rate and high inflation, the real appreciation is going to lead to a significant weakening of that account.”


Nouriel Roubini, in a Buenos Aires speech, October 27

Oct 27, 2010

There Is A Shift Of Economic, Trade And Financial Power To Emerging Economies

"There is a shift of economic, trade and financial power from advanced economies to emerging markets. There's a massive shift in the portfolio preferences of investors to emerging markets and away from advanced markets."

in WSJ

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM) , iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) ,iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI) , WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EPI), iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund (THD), Market Vectors Indonesia Index (ETF) (IDX)

Oct 26, 2010

China And US: A Recipe For Trade Wars.

"Having 10% unemployment in U.S. and 10% growth in China is a recipe for trade wars in a situation in which China doesn't allow its currency to appreciate."

Nouriel Roubini, in a speech to Latin American steel industry executives

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) , iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Oct 25, 2010

Greece Is Going To Default Or Do A Restructuring Under Pressure.

“If you don’t want to call it default or bankruptcy, call it a restructuring under pressure, but it’s going to happen.”

Nouriel Roubini, in www.ekathimerini.com

Oct 23, 2010

Growth Is Slowing Down.

“Some factors that contributed the growth performances of developed economies in the first half 2010 will not continue to exist in the second half, slowing the growth”

Nouriel Roubini, Istambul, October 20th

Oct 22, 2010

The ECB Would Rather Kill Any Chance Of The PIIGS Recovery.

“The stubborn ECB would rather kill any chance of the PIIGS recovery rather than consider further QE, which it finds unacceptable, citing the threat of a rise in inflation. Deflation, not inflation, is the risk which plagues the PIIGS."

in CNBC.com

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP), National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE), iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI)

The Risk Of Global Currency And Trade Wars Is Rising

“The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations”

in ictsd.org

Related ETFs: PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP)

Oct 21, 2010

Ukraine's Economy Has Started To Recover

"Ukraine's economy has started to recover, although the realization of reforms in the financial and taxation spheres should be accelerated to strengthen the process, according to Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

The economy in Ukraine has started recovering, but crosswinds are still blowing, in particular, the slow recovery of the global economy, as emerging markets are strongly impacted by the global markets, he said. The only way to support Ukraine's economic growth is to accelerate reforms, and in general conduct a proper economic policy to provide resistance to global stresses, he said in Kiev on Tuesday at an investment forum organized by the Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) Group.

He said that Ukraine should cut its budget deficit and clean up its financial system. The expert also said that Ukraine could gain much from direction foreign investment, although the rights of capital owners should be fully protected."


in www.ukrainianjournal.com

Oct 20, 2010

The Risk Of A Trade War Is Severe In Relations Between The US And China

“We are in a world where everybody wants to grow through exports. The risk of trade war is severe in relations between the U.S. and China.”

in Bloomberg.com

Oct 19, 2010

With 1% Growth You Don`t Create Private Jobs, The Budget Deficit Widens, House Prices Go Down Instead Of Stabilizing

“If growth is only 1 percent, it is going to feel like recession, though technically it will not be a recession. You don’t create private jobs, the budget deficit widens, house prices go down instead of stabilizing.”

in Bloomberg.com

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

There Is Still A Probability Of A Double Dip Recession Or Near Depression, As In Japan In The 90`s

“My base scenario is that we will have a slow, U-shaped recovery in the advanced economies, but still there is a probability of a double-dip recession, or near depression, as in Japan in the 1990s. The recovery in advanced economies is still very tentative.”

in Bloomberg

Oct 18, 2010

Roubini Says German Austerity Will Be Fatal for Eurozone

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said Germany’s austerity measures, introduced to fight the aftermath of the financial crisis, are “fatal” for Europe’s largest economy, Capital magazine reported, citing an interview.

Chancellor Angela Merkel should take advantage of Germany’s ability to borrow money cheaply and “should only start to consolidate when the rest of Europe is in better shape,” Roubini is cited as saying.

in Bloomberg.com