First Quarter Growth Was A Bit Of A Disaster For US Economic Growth

The first quarter was “a bit of a disaster for US economic growth, with the 1.8 percent increase in gross domestic product well below initial forecasts well north of 3 percent. - in CNBC.com

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Jobless Rate Is Heading To 9.8 percent

"The jobless rate, which recently grew to 9 percent, is likely headed for 9.8 percent in a year while economic growth will be less than 2 percent" - in CNBC

US Economy: Another Year Of Rising Unemployment

The US faces another year of rising unemployment and subpar growth as hopes for a recovery give way to a global slowdown. - in CNBC.com

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The Periphery Of The European Union Is A Disaster

“The periphery of the European Union is basically a disaster.” - in CNBC

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Is Inflation An Option To Reduce Unsustainable Debt Burdens?

Is high inflation the desirable way to reduce unsustainable debt burdens, and are policy makers likely to take that option? - in roubini.com

The Path Of Greek Public Debt Is Manifestly Unsustainable

The path of Greek public debt is manifestly unsustainable. Fiscal austerity and structural reforms are necessary but will not suffice.

In the best-case scenario, incorporating a 10 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment and structural reforms: Greek public debt to GDP peaks around 160 percent before “stabilizing.”

It is more likely that the debt ratio will exceed 160 percent and, left untended, will render market access both before and even after 2013 severely limited (or effectively non-existent). - in FT Alphaville

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We Will See More Financial Crisis

We'll see more financial crises – we cannot avoid them until there is a more radical reform of the banking system. - in CNBC

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The ECB Is Tightening Too Soon

Unfortunately the ECB has started to increase interest rates, these increasing interest rates are leading to a strengthening of the euro. The euro becoming stronger and stronger is preventing the resumption of economic growth.

"If there is not going to be economic growth their peripheral eurozone economies own fiscal problems - too much public debt, too much private debt - will never be resolved.

"A weaker euro would help them to grow out of their own recessions. Maybe the ECB is tightening to much, too fast, too soon. - in BBC

I Don`t Believe There`s A High Risk Of Inflation

I don't believe there's a high risk of inflation. If commodity prices get too high, that could double-dip the world economy and cause disinflationary pressure. - Nouriel Roubini at a recent conference sponsored by the nonprofit Milken Institute

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The Risks Of Rising Oil Prices

"If oil rises in price by 20 percent, then there is the risk of recession in the economies of the leading Western countries." - in The Voices Of Russia

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The Bond Market Vigilantes Have Already Woken Up In The Periphery Of The Eurozone. They Have Not Woken Up Yet In The U.S., U.K And Japan

"We have to address own problems. If you're looking at advanced economies, there's a series of problems that are going to remain with us, leaving aside geopolitical challenges we're facing.

We're coming out of the balance sheets of a recession. We have excesses of debt and leverage in the housing sector, in the financial system and in the government sector, both state and local and federal level. That's a problem in the U.S., in the Eurozone, in Japan, in the most advanced economies. There is a problem of sovereign risk. The bond market vigilantes have already woken up in the periphery of the Eurozone. They have not woken up yet in the U.S., or U.K and Japan."

In Bloomberg TV

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No Country Can Be Productive Enough To Reinvest Half Of GDP In New Capital Stock

No country can be productive enough to reinvest half of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity and a staggering non-performing loan problem.

Continuing down the investment-led growth path will exacerbate the visible glut of capacity in manufacturing, property and infrastructure, and thus will intensify the coming economic slowdown once further fixed-investment growth becomes impossible. Until the change of political leadership in 2012-13, China’s policymakers may be able to maintain high growth rates, but at a very high foreseeable cost. - in Project Syndicate

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The United States Has The Most Manageable Fiscal Issues Of Any Major Advanced Economy

The United States has the most manageable fiscal issues of any major advanced economy because federal, state and local revenues as a share of GDP are very low, for cyclical and other reasons. Therefore, fiscal balance can be restored by fiscal adjustment without major economic difficulty in the near term. - in Business Insider

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A Bond Market Revolt Is Not At All Easy To Engineer In The US

A bond market revolt is not at all easy to engineer in the United States” as “there is no safer asset destination on the planet than the United States, which has the third-longest-running system of government in the world, despite being a young nation. - in Forbes

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China Is Rife With Over Investment In Physical Capital

China is rife with over investment in physical capital, infrastructure and property. To a visitor, this is evident in sleek but empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, thousands of colossal new central and provincial government buildings, ghost towns and brand-new aluminium smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.

Eventually, most likely after 2013, China will suffer a hard landing. All historical episodes of excessive investment – including East Asia in the 1990s – have ended with a financial crisis and/or a long period of slow growth. - in Project Syndicate

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The S&P Downgrade Of The US Government Debt Outlook

The landmark S&P downgrade of its U.S. government debt outlook reinforces what we have been saying since 2010: The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path from which it cannot exit without political consensus. - in Roubini.com

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Greece, Portugal And Irish Banks

The issue of Greece is not whether there will be debt restructuring, but when it will be done, and whether it will be an orderly market-oriented debt exchange or disorderly like in Argentina. One can make the same argument for Portugal’s government and Irish banks. - at a conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s financial center

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US 1st Quarter Growth Is Now Tracking 1.5 Percent Or Lower

"Based on latest data US Q1 GDP growth is now tracking 1.5% if not lower. Optimists call is a Soft Patch. Realists call it near Stall Speed." - in Twitter

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