Monetary Union: The Risks Of A Break-Up

“The euro will move towards disorderly debt workouts, and eventually a break-up of the monetary union itself, as some of the weaker members crash out. The crisis is evolving and scenarios that are treated as inconceivable today may not be so far-fetched five years from now. - in thetrumpet.com

Kicking The Can Down The Road

There are already elements of fragility. Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.” - at a media briefing in Singapore

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China`s Hard Landing

"There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013." - in a financial conference, Singapore

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India Should Hike Rates

A commodity price shock increases inflation and reduces growth. It creates a policy trade-off for authorities: Should I care about growth and postpone raising rates, or should I care about inflation by tightening at the cost of hurting growth? It creates, definitely, much more complicated policy challenges.

In India’s case, further tightening is reasonably warranted, given that growth has been robust and inflation has picked up, and also considering that policy rates remain negative in real terms. - in www.business-standard.com

I Don`t Think There Is A Bond Bubble

"At current levels, U.S. treasuries are fairly valued. I don't think there is a bond bubble.

Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion, and every other week there is another tail risk or black swan event, people dump the euro, dump yen and go to the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries." - in Reuters

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The Housing Market Is Already Double Dipping

“One sector of the market that is already double-dipping is the housing market, residential real estate,” he said. Before all is said and done, almost 50% percent of houses are going to be in negative equity.” - in a conference, Waldorf Astoria Hotel NYC

The Global Economy

“The global economy is a glass that is half full and half empty.” - in GlobeSt

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The US Economy Is Close To Stall Speed

"US economy now close to stall speed. From anemic recovery to tipping point to stall speed and growth recession. Is a double dip next?" - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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A Giant Ponzi Scheme

"Greece: throwing more good money after bad money to bail out - rather than bailing in - reckless creditors. A giant Ponzi scheme." - in Nouriel`s Twitter, June 2

Tickers: National Bank Of Greece (NBG)

Anemic Growth Turning Into A Double Dip?

Anemic subpar U-shaped growth becomes "soft patch" then turns into stall speed and may soon turn into a double dip. Consensus in sharp retreat. - in Nouriel`s Twitter, June 2

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As I Predicted A Week Ago...

As I predicted a week ago "Roubini Sees Stock-Correction 'Tipping Point' on Slowdown" - in Twitter

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The World Economy Is Losing Strength

"The world economy is losing strength halfway through the year as high oil prices and fallout from Japan's natural disaster and Europe's debt woes take their toll.... Until two weeks ago I'd say markets were shrugging off all these concerns, saying they don't matter because they were believing the global economic recovery was on track. But I think right now we're on the tipping point of a market correction.

With slow global economic growth, they're going to surprise on the downside. We're going to see the beginning of a correction that's going to increase volatility and that's going to increase risk aversion." in "Roubini Sees Stock-Correction 'Tipping Point'", Bloomberg

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Expected Earnings, Sales And Profit Margins Are Under Squeeze

“Until now, equity prices were supported by better than expected earnings, sales and profit margins. But all three are under squeeze. With slow global economic growth, they’re going to surprise on the downside. We’re going to see the beginning of a correction that’s going to increase volatility and that’s going to increase risk aversion.” - in Bloomberg

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We’re On The Tipping Point Of A Market Correction

Until two weeks ago I’d say markets were shrugging off all these concerns, saying they don’t matter because they were believing the global economic recovery was on track. But I think right now we’re on the tipping point of a market correction. - in Bloomberg

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The ECB Is Overstating The Risk Of Contagion From A Restructuring Of Greek Debt

"Not only is the ECB wrong, but it hasn't even done its homework. It hasn't "presented an exhaustive analysis of the possible channels of contagion, shown history examples, nor suggested ways of preventing it." - in El Economista newspaper

Related: National bank OF Greece (NBG)

Growth Soft Patch Is Becoming A Swamp

Alleged growth "soft patch" is becoming a swamp. Capex spending plunging. US & global growth is weakening while risk-on becomes risk-off - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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China Is Poised For A Sharp Slowdown

"Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible - most likely after 2013 - China is poised for a sharp slowdown." - in news.xinhuanet.com

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The Programme Of Greece is Off-Track

"The programme of Greece is off-track as state asset sales won't make a dent. Even if they were to raise the 50 billion Euros over the 5 years, it wouldn't change anything. Debt restructuring isn't an alternative to austerity, it complements it." - in an interview in Milan

Related: National bank OF Greece (NBG)

The Exchange Rates Game

In this fundamental exchange rate game, the currencies that should be appreciating are those that are undervalued with large current account surpluses.

While the ones that should be depreciating are U.S., U.K. and other countries that had their bubble, then bust, and now need net export growth, given that domestic demand is anemic with balance sheet retrenchment. - in a Bloomberg interview with Tom Keene

DSK: In The Court Of Public Opinion He Is Now Damaged Goods.

"In the court of public opinion he is now damaged goods, even if legally he is innocent until proven guilty." - in RGE.com

Greece: A Haircut Of 20-50% Is Required To Achieve Debt Sustainability

“A haircut of 20-50% is required to achieve debt sustainability. To put things into perspective, it is worth considering the magnitude of haircut required to make debt clearly sustainable. For simplicity at this stage, we consider face-value haircuts in our debt sustainability analysis toolkit and find that a haircut of around 20% on the total stock of debt would allow Greece to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60% by 2030. This assessment is based on the macroeconomic projections in the IMF’s April 2011 WEO; however, more conservative macroeconomic projections suggest a haircut of around 50% could be necessary.” - in The PragCap

Related: National Bank Of Greece (NBG)