What Will The Federal Reserve Do?

Given the bearish outlook for US economic growth, the Fed can be expected to engage in another round of quantitative easing. But the Fed also faces political constraints, and will do too little, and move too late, to help the economy significantly.

Moreover, a vocal minority on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is against further easing. In any case, monetary policy cannot address only liquidity problems – and banks are flush with excess reserves. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Housing Market Is Comatose

Even after six years of a housing recession, the sector is comatose. With demand for new homes having fallen by 80 percent relative to the peak, the downward price adjustment is likely to continue in 2012 as the supply of new and existing homes continues to exceed demand. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economy: The Recent Bounce In Investment Spending Will End

The recent bounce in investment spending (and housing) will end, with bleak prospects for 2012, as tax benefits expire, firms wait out so-called “tail risks” (low-probability, high-impact events), and insufficient final demand holds down capacity-utilization rates. And most capital spending will continue to be devoted to labor-saving technologies, again implying limited job creation. - in Economonitor

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economic Outlook

Macroeconomic indicators for the United States have been better than expected for the last few months. Job creation has picked up. Indicators for manufacturing and services have improved moderately. Even the housing industry has shown some signs of life. And consumption growth has been relatively resilient.

But, despite the favorable data, US economic growth will remain weak and below trend throughout 2012. Why is all the recent economic good news not to be believed?

First, US consumers remain income-challenged, wealth-challenged, and debt-constrained. Disposable income has been growing modestly – despite real-wage stagnation – mostly as a result of tax cuts and transfer payments. This is not sustainable: eventually, transfer payments will have to be reduced and taxes raised to reduce the fiscal deficit. Recent consumption data are already weakening relative to a couple of months ago, marked by holiday retail sales that were merely passable.

At the same time, US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labor income. The US needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month on a consistent basis just to stabilize the unemployment rate. More than 40 percent of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed, which reduces their chances of ever regaining a decent job. Indeed, firms are still trying to find ways to slash labor costs. - in Economonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Latest Video Interview: Eurozone Concerns

Video Interview, ET NOW.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

India: A Fascinating & Complex Country

Always a pleasure to visit India, a fascinating and complex country. Many important policy challenges while growth is showing some slowdown.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Don’t Be Fooled by the U.S. Data

Don’t be fooled by the recent stronger U.S. economic data: The economy will weaken in 2012. - in RGE

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Hungary`s Financing Gap

In 2012 Hungary may have a financing gap as large as 10 percent of GDP putting pressure on reserves and currency. (Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Irish Economy ‘Double-Dipping' as Services Shrink

Ireland's economy is clearly double-dipping. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has No Growth Strategy

New Eurozone fiscal compact will imply even more recessionary front-loaded fiscal austerity both in the PIIGS and core Eurozone. The EZ has no growth strategy.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

2012 Will Be A Bumpy Year For The Global Economy

2012 will be a bumpy year for the global economy: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, “Fasten your seatbelts!” - in Economy Watch

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Fiscal Stimulus & The Positive Multiplier Effect

10 out of 11 empirical/econometric models of the 2008-2010 US fiscal stimulus show a significant positive multiplier effect on GDP and jobs.

(Source: Nouriel Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Euro Zone Needs A Real Depreciation In The Periphery

The euro zone needs a real depreciation in the periphery to achieve the restoration of growth, external balance and competitiveness. The periphery needs to have the euro closer to parity with the US dollar.” - at the Ambrosetti Workshop on the shores of Lake Como, Italy

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Futures Fell For A 6th Straight Session

Gold futures fell for a sixth straight session, the longest slump since March 2009, with a 1.5 percent drop to $1,540.90.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Perfect Storm

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the US, a disorderly scenario in the Eurozone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in advisor.ca

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

An Eurozone Recession Is Certain (Depth And Length Cannot Be Predicted)

'At this point, an eurozone recession is certain (...) while its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a severe downturn.' - excerpt from Roubini`s outlook for next year titled Fragile and unbalanced in 2012

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Home Prices Still Falling. Expect More Of The Same In 2012.

US home prices still falling as supply (including foreclosures) exceeds demand. Expect more of same in 2012 with millions more households underwater.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

Related, DR Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), Lennar Corp (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Durable Goods Orders Are Weak

Excluding the volatile military and aircraft components durable goods fell 1.2 percent, the worst since January.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Perfect Storm

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the U.S., a disorderly scenario in the euro zone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has Been In Denial

The Eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Political Constraints Have Led Leaders To Avoid The Short-Term Pain & Political Costs Of Tough Decisions

The US has postponed its fiscal consolidation and avoided the other structural reforms – investments in infrastructure, education and skills and changes to energy policy – that are required to restore its potential growth rate. The eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. China has persisted in its weak currency, to support its export and investment-led growth model where savings are too high and consumption too low.

In all cases political constraints – the approaching elections in the US and leadership transition in China at the end of 2012, and the inability of the eurozone’s 17 governments and coalitions to coordinate policies coherently while staggered elections and changes of government take place – have led leaders to avoid the short-term pain and political costs of tough decisions that will yield benefits only over the medium term. - in Economonitor

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Plea To Policymakers: We Can’t Risk Another Year Of Delay

For the last three years the world’s biggest economies - the US, eurozone and China - have been living up to the infuriating euphemism so beloved of policymakers: ”kicking the can down the road”. They have been avoiding the tough decisions that are required to address their fundamental economic, financial and fiscal problems. - excerpt from the FT.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Brazil: Growth Is Slowing Sharply

Brazil has been hyped too much lately. Growth is slowing sharply.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Video: "Conferencias Do Estoril" (Portugal)

Nouriel speaking at "Conferências do Estoril", Portugal.

Topics: Financial crisis, eurozone and the portuguese situation;

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone: A Recession Is Certain

At this point, a eurozone recession is certain. While its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign-debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a serious downturn.

(Source: Project Syndicate)

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.