The Next Few Weeks Could Bring A Reduction In Geopolitical Tensions

The next few weeks could bring a reduction in tensions, as the US, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia go through another round of attempts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons or the capacity to produce them. But if this attempt fails, as is likely, one cannot rule out that, by summer, Israel and the US agree that, sooner rather than later, force will have be used to stop Iran. - in Economonitor

Related, United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Risk Of A Spike In Oil Prices

No risk is more serious than that posed by a further spike in oil prices.

The reason is fear. Not only are oil supplies plentiful, but demand in the US and Europe has been lower, owing to decreasing car use in the last few years and weak or negative GDP growth in the US and the eurozone. Simply put, increasing worry about a military conflict between Israel and Iran has created a “fear premium.”

If the drums of war (between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance) grow louder this summer, oil prices could rise in a way that will most likely cause a US and global growth slowdown, and even an outright recession if a military conflict erupts and sends oil prices soaring.

Oil is already well above $100/barrel, despite weak economic growth in advanced countries and many emerging markets. The fear premium might push prices significantly higher, even if no military conflict ultimately takes place, and could trigger a global recession if one does. - in Business Insider

Related, United States Oil fund ETF (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Crude Oil Futures, Transocean (RIG), ConocoPhillips (COP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

If Iran Exports Go To Zero, Oil Could Go To 200 USD

If there's an effect on the supply of oil and gas from the Gulf, and production and exports from Iran go for a while to zero, oil could go to $170, $180, $200 a barrel. - in Foreign Policy magazine

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Transocean (RIG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Portugal Will Be Next to Default, Greece to Leave Euro

Greece will be the first country to exit the eurozone, not this year but maybe later next year, but in order to restore growth, competitiveness and external balance they need the real depreciation.

In terms of debt restructuring after Greece, I think Portugal is the more likely that is going to require a debt restructuring and maybe eventually an exit like Greece. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

3 Temporary Factors Impacting Growth

Merrill Lynch (says), recent good economic data depends on 3 factors: weather, delay in foreclosure process and lagged impact of lower gasoline prices.

Those 3 positive factors are temporary as weather effect on jobs will fade out in spring, foreclosures will increase and oil price is rising. - Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Biggest Risk For The Global Economy Right Now

Biggest tail risk to the global economy now is a military conflict between Israel and Iran that sharply spikes oil prices. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related, United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return(OIL), Crude Oil Futures

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oil Price Spike Could Push World Economy Into Stagflation

Excerpt from BBC blog -- "Nouriel Roubini thinks the oil price spike out of the Arab revolts could push the world economy into stagflation. There is also the risk that currency war breaks out into open trade war." - in NYU Stern website

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Chinese Growth

China's new official growth forecast for 2012 - 7.5 percent - matches RGE's below consensus forecast of 7.4 percent. We'll update ours based on data flow. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economic Data Round Up

Consumption flat, ISM down, construction spending down, durable goods order/capex down. Apart from better initial claims US growth is slower. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Q1 U.S. Growth Can Be Very Weak

Real consumption spending has been flat for 3 months now including January while capex spending fell. So Q1 U.S. growth could be very weak. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

More Risks To The Global Economy

"One is sharply rising oil prices." - Nouriel Roubini in a recent Tweet

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Crude Oil Futures, energy stocks

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Global Economic Outlook: There Will Be A Significant Slowdown In China This Year

In the UK there is recession, even the US is not doing great, in India there’s a slowdown and they’re worried about that. In China, exports, infrastructure investment, real estate is slowing down, so there’ll be a significant slowdown in China this year. - in The Telegraph

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece: There Will Be A Violent Reaction, A Revolution

I think you are deluding yourself to think that the alternative is going to be to stay in the euro, stay in a depression and eventually it will lead to so much social and political stability...there will be a violent reaction to it, a revolution. - Nouriel Roubini during a conference in Athens yesterday

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There Are Many Things That Could Go Wrong In The Middle East

In other words, there are many things that could go wrong in the Middle East, any combination of which might stoke fear in markets and lead to much higher oil prices. Despite weak economic growth in advanced economies and a slowdown in many emerging markets, oil is already at around $100 per barrel. But the fear premium could push it significantly higher, with predictably negative effects on the global economy. - in Project Syndicate

Related, Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM),

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.