tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57107224351004643842024-03-05T19:02:36.314-08:00Nouriel Roubini BlogRoubini`s Comments on The Economy And Market Developments - Unofficial Blog Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger762125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-72855904926336432022013-12-06T06:03:00.000-08:002013-12-06T06:03:32.520-08:00Bubbles In Several Housing MarketsNow, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.<br />
<br />
Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short- and long-term interest rates. Given anemic GDP growth, high unemployment, and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by conventional and unconventional monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with home prices. - <i>Business Insider</i><br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-64639131530735669942013-11-12T05:12:00.001-08:002013-11-12T05:12:27.086-08:00U.S. Economy: Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is HighThe economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.<br />
<br />
Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-85712801067926471322013-11-11T06:57:00.001-08:002013-11-12T05:06:37.941-08:00U.S. Stock Market: We Are Not Yet In Bubble Territory <iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="250" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/pzdR5pIDTa4" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
Related trading instruments: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-88689050433926587242013-10-22T09:32:00.002-07:002013-10-22T09:32:52.304-07:00Brazil Was Too Hyped2 years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - <i>in a recent tweet </i><br />
<br />
Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)<br />
<br />
Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-80811598920239731052013-10-15T05:25:00.001-07:002013-10-15T05:25:16.652-07:00The Economic Impact in Terms of a Fiscal DragThe economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn. (in a recent TV appearance with CNBC)<br />
<br />
<b>Related trading instruments:</b> Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-35925173960624864692013-10-14T05:16:00.001-07:002013-10-14T05:16:22.824-07:00Without Market Discipline, There`s No Pressure To Do Anything“Without market discipline, there’s no pressure to do anything because you can continue to finance yourself cheaply.” - <i>in Washington Post</i><br />
<br />
Related assets: 10-Year U.S. Treasuries, 30-Year T-Bonds;<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-56633036322861018962013-10-07T07:20:00.002-07:002013-10-07T07:20:59.174-07:00Eurozone Crisis: A Temporary Respite Between Storms?"The calm that has prevailed in eurozone financial markets for most of the past year would turn out to be only a temporary respite between storms." -<i> in Money News</i><div>
<span><br /></span><i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-17669428490106006762013-10-03T07:00:00.002-07:002013-10-03T07:00:31.114-07:00Eurozone's Fundamental Problems Remain Unresolved"Beneath the surface calm of lower spreads and lower tail risks, the eurozone's fundamental problems remain unresolved. For starters, potential growth is still too low in most of the periphery, given ageing populations and low productivity growth, while actual growth – even once the periphery exits the recession, in 2014 – will remain below 1% for the next few years, implying that unemployment rates will remain very high.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, levels of private and public debt, domestic and foreign, are still too high, and continue to rise as a share of GDP, owing to slow or negative output growth. This means that the issue of medium-term sustainability remains unresolved.<br />
<br />
At the same time, the loss of competitiveness has been only partly reversed, with most of the improvement in external balances being cyclical rather than structural. The severe recession in the periphery has caused imports there to collapse, but lower unit labour costs have boosted exports insufficiently. The euro is still too strong, severely limiting the improvement in competitiveness that is needed to boost net exports in the face of weak domestic demand." - <i>in The Guardian</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-6563583723306857202013-10-02T03:04:00.002-07:002013-10-02T03:04:23.580-07:00Euro Monetary Union: Disintegration Risk Has Diminished Significantly"A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, the risk that the monetary union could disintegrate has diminished significantly – but the factors that led to it remain largely unaddressed." - <i>in The Guardian</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares Germany ETF (EWG)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-86570945923806598952013-10-01T13:39:00.002-07:002013-10-01T13:39:48.287-07:00If A Government Shutdown Cannot Lift Gold, What Else Will?If a government shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will? - <i>in Twitter</i><br />
<br />
<b>Related stocks and ETFs:</b> SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-7375382399840094972013-09-30T05:59:00.000-07:002013-09-30T05:59:44.131-07:00Political Risks Rise In West Countries"Political risks rise in West countries: U.S. goverment shutdown risk; Italian goverment collapse risk; uncertainty on German government; Greece & Portugal risks." - <i>in Twitter</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-24732676356731891152013-09-29T07:23:00.000-07:002013-09-29T07:23:00.074-07:00Markets Are Underpricing The Risk Of A Slowdown In China"In my view, the markets are underpricing the risk of a slowdown in China. We expect this year the growth in China would be 7.4%, whereas the consensus is above 8 percent." - <i>in Economic Times</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-50047496917653796532013-09-27T07:21:00.000-07:002013-09-27T07:21:05.762-07:00Industrial Metals Like Copper Are Going To Do Much Worse In Relative Terms"Certainly, demand for oil, energy, water and food is going to increase in the emerging markets, thanks to a growing population and increasing per capita income. Therefore, those commodities that are related more to the consumption growth in China and emerging market, in relative terms, might be the better placed - like oil - as transportation needs would sustain demand. However, industrial metals like copper, in less resource-intensive emerging markets, are going to do much worse in relative terms." - <i>in Economic Times </i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI), Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-77732029043616134752013-09-26T07:45:00.000-07:002013-09-26T07:45:43.648-07:00The Commodity Super Cycle Is Probably Over"There are a number of factors as to why the commodity super cycle is probably over. First of all, China is slowing down. Their growth rate might be as low as 6 or 7 percent. Additionally, we have a slow recovery in advanced economies and since there the monetary policy is going to be tightened, however, gradual. The Fed eventually is going to start tapering, would eventually go away from zero policy rates and that increase in short and long rates is going to soften commodity prices as well. The dollar is going to strengthen over time because economic growth in the US is going to outperform the one in other advanced economies. The Fed is going to exit faster than other central banks." - <i>in Economic Times</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Related stocks & ETFs: </i>SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), Ternium S.A. (ADR)(NYSE:TX), ArcelorMittal (ADR)(NYSE:MT), Gerdau SA (ADR)(NYSE:GGB), Vale SA (ADR)(NYSE:VALE), Conoco Phillips (COP), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-35096215613656609232013-09-25T05:31:00.001-07:002013-09-25T05:31:35.613-07:00Higher Interest Rates Will Be A Negative For Commodities Prices“You probably want to be underweight in bonds, and overweight in equities, mainly in the United States. Higher interest rates will be a negative for commodities prices.” - <i>speaking at Index Universe’s Inside Commodities </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE:EWZ)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-5137964126973608882013-09-23T19:42:00.000-07:002013-09-23T19:42:00.273-07:00Advanced Economies: Inflation Is Not going to Be A Problem For The Next 2 Or 3 Years"Those worried about inflation worry about all the money printing leading to that inflation. Inflation in advanced economies is going to be the least of problems developed economies will face in the next two or three years." - <i>in CNBC</i><br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-9894616343206827102013-09-23T17:36:00.000-07:002013-09-23T17:36:00.149-07:00The U.S. Dollar Is Likely To Become Stronger "The dollar is likely to become stronger rather than weaker. The thing about the U.S. compared to other advanced economies...the fundamentals for the U.S. are much better." - <i>in CNBC</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Related: EUR/USD, SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-42980067262308744512013-09-23T15:00:00.000-07:002013-09-23T15:00:01.138-07:00Yellen: A Notch More Dovish That Other Members Of The Board"She might be a notch more dovish that other members of the board, but under Bernanke, the Fed became a collegial democracy. It will be a consensus-driven Fed." - <i>in an interview after his speech at IndexUniverse's Inside Commodities conference in New York </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Related: S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq 100 Index<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-5818382907408313072013-09-23T14:28:00.001-07:002013-09-23T14:28:31.763-07:00The Federal Reserve Has Realized That The Economy Was Weak"It's clear that the Fed has realized that the economy was weak." - <i>in Investment News</i><br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-1948472929209282622013-09-19T03:13:00.000-07:002013-09-19T03:13:12.116-07:00Early Taper Talk Caused A Spike in Long Rates"By too early taper talk starting in May the Fed caused a spike in long rates that weakened growth and forced it NOT to taper today." - <i>in Twitter </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Related: US 10 Year Treasuries, 30 Year Treasury Bond</i><br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-11602910108196817432013-09-19T03:08:00.002-07:002013-09-19T03:08:57.323-07:00Tapering: The Consensus Got It Wrong"As The Economist put it the Fed is a Taper Tiger. But the consensus got wrong the "silence of the doves": they were fully data dependent." - <i>in Twitter</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-72399634751061751202013-09-18T02:55:00.002-07:002013-09-18T02:55:53.161-07:00The Federal Reserve Should Not And May Not Taper Today"Based on the weak macro data the Federal Reserve should not and may not taper today. If it does it will be taper-lite with stronger forward guidance and escape clause." - <i>in Twitter</i><br />
<br />
Related indexes & ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index, Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-30297332817930969792013-09-17T07:07:00.001-07:002013-09-17T07:07:27.048-07:00How Can The Fed Taper Now?"New mortgages & refinancing applications are falling off the cliff as taper talk led to mortgage yields surge. How can the Fed taper now?" - <i>in Twitter</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-57125598490833768512013-09-16T23:08:00.003-07:002013-09-16T23:08:50.264-07:00US Banks Are Even-Bigger-To-Fail "Five years after Lehman's collapse US banks are even-bigger-to-fail given consolidation: J.P. Morgan taking over Bear Stearns, Bank of America taking Countrywide & Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo taking Wachovia." - in Twitter<br />
<br />
Related stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5710722435100464384.post-66849658054818913582013-09-12T03:29:00.001-07:002013-09-12T03:29:24.125-07:00United States: 3 Sources Of Policy Uncertainty Will Come To A Head This AutumnToday, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.
"In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.<br />
<br />
The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates - from a low of 1.6 percent in May to recent peaks above 2.9 percent - has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.<br />
<br />
So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out." - <i>in Project Syndicate</i><br />
<br />
Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)<br />
<br />
<i>Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com