Nouriel Roubini Blog

It`s A Very Delicate Global Economy

2012-01-31T06:22:00.000-08:00

We live in a world where there is still a huge amount of economic and financial fragility. There is a huge amount of uncertainty — macro, financial, fiscal, sovereign, banking, regulatory, taxation — and there is also geopolitical and political and policy uncertainty.

There are lots of sources of uncertainty from the eurozone, from the Middle East, from the fact that the U.S. is not tackling its own fiscal problem, from the fact that Chinese growth is unbalanced and unsustainable, relying too much on exports and fixed investments and high savings, and not enough on consumption. So it's a very delicate global economy. - in a AP interview

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A G-20 Or G-Zero World?

2012-01-30T17:22:00.000-08:00

This doesn't look like a G20 world; it looks like a G-Zero world. There is disagreement. There is no leadership. In a world where we have the rise of many powers, the United States cannot impose its will. - in Public Service Europe

Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Euro Zone Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

2012-01-30T04:48:00.000-08:00

The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck. Not only Greece, other countries as well are insolvent.

There`s a 50 percent probability that over the next three to five years the euro zone will break up. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China: Growth Is Slowing

2012-01-29T07:22:00.000-08:00

Export growth is slowing. If they don't do something - stimulus in monetary and fiscal credit - the risk is that the growth will slow down well below 8 per cent. - in Sydney Morning Herald

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe: The Policy Response Is Making The Recession Worse

2012-01-28T06:52:00.000-08:00

"The policy response is making the recession worse. What Europe needs is less austerity and more growth." - in The Guardian

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US 4th Quarter Growth Was Lower Than Forecasts, Likely To Be Revised Even Lower.

2012-01-27T06:48:00.000-08:00

US Q4 growth at 2.8 percent lower than optimistic forecasts of 3.5 percent. Also likely to be revised down once better data on small firms/shops are out.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe Needs Massive Monetary Easing

2012-01-26T06:18:00.001-08:00

Europe needs massive monetary easing to get out of its debt crisis. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Won`t Be The Last Country To Restructure Its Debt

2012-01-26T06:16:00.001-08:00

Greece is going to be the first country to restructure its debt, I don't think it's going to be the last one. - in the WEF, Davos

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Needs Less Austerity And More Growth

2012-01-25T06:45:00.000-08:00

“There’s a severe recession in the periphery of the euro zone. Less austerity, more growth, that’s what the euro zone needs today.” - in CNBC

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

I Don`t Own A Car, Boat Or Plane

2012-01-24T07:23:00.000-08:00

No car, no boat, no plane. In my free time, I wear blue jeans. I love culture, the visual arts, literature. My only conspicuous consumption is contemporary art, but I usually buy young artists, even before they have gallery representation. I go to their studios. It's a passion, not an investment. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Problems Facing The Global Economy

2012-01-23T07:24:00.001-08:00

Most problems facing the global economy are not temporary or random. - in Forbes.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Tail Risks In The Global Economy

2012-01-22T06:28:00.000-08:00

Last year was a year of risk, volatility, uncertainty and surprises and the question is, ‘Are they going to happen again?’

If you think about all these tail risks about the global economy, the reality is many of them are not temporary. Many of them are not transitory and many of them are not random events. They’re going to be sources of volatility. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Emerging Markets In Much Better Shape Than Most Advanced Economies

2012-01-21T06:25:00.000-08:00

Mexico doing well: low debt, low deficit, low inflation, good growth. Emerging markets in much better shape than most advanced economies.

(Source: Roubini`s Offical Twitter page)

Related, iShares MSCI Mexico Index ETF (EWW), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Net Exports Will Be A Drag On Growth In 2012

2012-01-20T06:24:00.000-08:00

Given anemic growth in domestic demand, America’s only chance to move closer to its potential growth rate would be to reduce its large trade deficit. But net exports will be a drag on growth in 2012.

(Source: Economonitor)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mexico: Faster Growth Depends On Structural Reforms

2012-01-19T07:08:00.000-08:00

Mexico growth will be moderate in 2012 (3 percent) and below trend given external risks. Faster potential and actual growth depends on structural reforms.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

How Europe Can Possibly Grow Its Way Out Of The Debt Crisis?

2012-01-18T04:45:00.000-08:00

The underlying picture of economic weakness that has not only worsened but has spread to the core economies raises the question of how Europe can possibly grow its way out of the debt crisis. - in Roubini Global Economics

Related, Eurostoxx 50 Index, Dax Index, Cac 40 Index

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Job Growth Is Still Too Mediocre

2012-01-17T06:32:00.000-08:00

US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labour income. The US needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month on a consistent basis just to stabilise the unemployment rate. More than 40 per cent of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed, which reduces their chances of ever regaining a decent job. - in The Straits of America

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

What Will The Federal Reserve Do?

2012-01-16T07:35:00.000-08:00

Given the bearish outlook for US economic growth, the Fed can be expected to engage in another round of quantitative easing. But the Fed also faces political constraints, and will do too little, and move too late, to help the economy significantly.

Moreover, a vocal minority on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is against further easing. In any case, monetary policy cannot address only liquidity problems – and banks are flush with excess reserves. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Housing Market Is Comatose

2012-01-15T09:32:00.000-08:00

Even after six years of a housing recession, the sector is comatose. With demand for new homes having fallen by 80 percent relative to the peak, the downward price adjustment is likely to continue in 2012 as the supply of new and existing homes continues to exceed demand. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economy: The Recent Bounce In Investment Spending Will End

2012-01-14T09:27:00.000-08:00

The recent bounce in investment spending (and housing) will end, with bleak prospects for 2012, as tax benefits expire, firms wait out so-called “tail risks” (low-probability, high-impact events), and insufficient final demand holds down capacity-utilization rates. And most capital spending will continue to be devoted to labor-saving technologies, again implying limited job creation. - in Economonitor

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economic Outlook

2012-01-13T07:27:00.000-08:00

Macroeconomic indicators for the United States have been better than expected for the last few months. Job creation has picked up. Indicators for manufacturing and services have improved moderately. Even the housing industry has shown some signs of life. And consumption growth has been relatively resilient.

But, despite the favorable data, US economic growth will remain weak and below trend throughout 2012. Why is all the recent economic good news not to be believed?

First, US consumers remain income-challenged, wealth-challenged, and debt-constrained. Disposable income has been growing modestly – despite real-wage stagnation – mostly as a result of tax cuts and transfer payments. This is not sustainable: eventually, transfer payments will have to be reduced and taxes raised to reduce the fiscal deficit. Recent consumption data are already weakening relative to a couple of months ago, marked by holiday retail sales that were merely passable.

At the same time, US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labor income. The US needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month on a consistent basis just to stabilize the unemployment rate. More than 40 percent of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed, which reduces their chances of ever regaining a decent job. Indeed, firms are still trying to find ways to slash labor costs. - in Economonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Latest Video Interview: Eurozone Concerns

2012-01-11T10:45:00.000-08:00

Video Interview, ET NOW.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

India: A Fascinating & Complex Country

2012-01-10T10:24:00.000-08:00

Always a pleasure to visit India, a fascinating and complex country. Many important policy challenges while growth is showing some slowdown.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Don’t Be Fooled by the U.S. Data

2012-01-10T07:35:00.000-08:00

Don’t be fooled by the recent stronger U.S. economic data: The economy will weaken in 2012. - in RGE

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Hungary`s Financing Gap

2012-01-06T07:27:00.000-08:00

In 2012 Hungary may have a financing gap as large as 10 percent of GDP putting pressure on reserves and currency. (Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Irish Economy ‘Double-Dipping' as Services Shrink

2012-01-05T08:17:00.001-08:00

Ireland's economy is clearly double-dipping. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has No Growth Strategy

2012-01-05T05:34:00.000-08:00

New Eurozone fiscal compact will imply even more recessionary front-loaded fiscal austerity both in the PIIGS and core Eurozone. The EZ has no growth strategy.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

2012 Will Be A Bumpy Year For The Global Economy

2012-01-03T09:01:00.000-08:00

2012 will be a bumpy year for the global economy: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, “Fasten your seatbelts!” - in Economy Watch

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Fiscal Stimulus & The Positive Multiplier Effect

2012-01-02T08:10:00.000-08:00

10 out of 11 empirical/econometric models of the 2008-2010 US fiscal stimulus show a significant positive multiplier effect on GDP and jobs.

(Source: Nouriel Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Futures Fell For A 6th Straight Session

2011-12-29T15:58:00.000-08:00

Gold futures fell for a sixth straight session, the longest slump since March 2009, with a 1.5 percent drop to $1,540.90.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Perfect Storm

2011-12-29T07:08:00.000-08:00

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the US, a disorderly scenario in the Eurozone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in advisor.ca

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

An Eurozone Recession Is Certain (Depth And Length Cannot Be Predicted)

2011-12-28T05:07:00.000-08:00

'At this point, an eurozone recession is certain (...) while its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a severe downturn.' - excerpt from Roubini`s outlook for next year titled Fragile and unbalanced in 2012

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Home Prices Still Falling. Expect More Of The Same In 2012.

2011-12-27T07:24:00.000-08:00

US home prices still falling as supply (including foreclosures) exceeds demand. Expect more of same in 2012 with millions more households underwater.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Durable Goods Orders Are Weak

2011-12-24T06:25:00.000-08:00

Excluding the volatile military and aircraft components durable goods fell 1.2 percent, the worst since January.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Perfect Storm

2011-12-23T06:24:00.000-08:00

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the U.S., a disorderly scenario in the euro zone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has Been In Denial

2011-12-22T09:52:00.000-08:00

The Eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Political Constraints Have Led Leaders To Avoid The Short-Term Pain & Political Costs Of Tough Decisions

2011-12-21T07:02:00.000-08:00

The US has postponed its fiscal consolidation and avoided the other structural reforms – investments in infrastructure, education and skills and changes to energy policy – that are required to restore its potential growth rate. The eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. China has persisted in its weak currency, to support its export and investment-led growth model where savings are too high and consumption too low.

In all cases political constraints – the approaching elections in the US and leadership transition in China at the end of 2012, and the inability of the eurozone’s 17 governments and coalitions to coordinate policies coherently while staggered elections and changes of government take place – have led leaders to avoid the short-term pain and political costs of tough decisions that will yield benefits only over the medium term. - in Economonitor

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Plea To Policymakers: We Can’t Risk Another Year Of Delay

2011-12-20T08:02:00.000-08:00

For the last three years the world’s biggest economies - the US, eurozone and China - have been living up to the infuriating euphemism so beloved of policymakers: ”kicking the can down the road”. They have been avoiding the tough decisions that are required to address their fundamental economic, financial and fiscal problems. - excerpt from the FT.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Brazil: Growth Is Slowing Sharply

2011-12-19T06:15:00.000-08:00

Brazil has been hyped too much lately. Growth is slowing sharply.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Video: "Conferencias Do Estoril" (Portugal)

2011-12-18T09:11:00.000-08:00

Nouriel speaking at "Conferências do Estoril", Portugal.

Topics: Financial crisis, eurozone and the portuguese situation;

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone: A Recession Is Certain

2011-12-17T09:24:00.000-08:00

At this point, a eurozone recession is certain. While its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign-debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a serious downturn.

(Source: Project Syndicate)

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Outlook For The Global Economy In 2012 Is Clear (But It Isn’t Pretty)

2011-12-16T07:19:00.000-08:00

The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn’t pretty: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China.

Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the eurozone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

(Source: Project Syndicate)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini: Two Perspectives on the Crisis

2011-12-15T07:17:00.000-08:00

Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini: Two Perspectives on the Crisis,

New York University's Department of Italian Studies
Casa Italiana Zerilli-Marimò
Global and Joint Program Studies at the
Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute

present "Italy and the U.S. Two Perspectives on the Crisis"

Featuring:
Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini

Moderated by:
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Chair, NYU Department of Italian Studies

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Will Slow Sharply In 2012

2011-12-14T12:32:00.000-08:00

RGE view: China slows down sharply in 2012 to 7.4 percent growth from 9.1 percent in 2011. Not yet full hard landing but sharper slowdown than most expect.

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Consumption Is Weak

2011-12-13T06:40:00.000-08:00

Consumers slowing down retail spending after modest Q3 binge. Once properly corrected for discretionary service spending consumption is weak.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

Related, Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

RGE 2012 Outlook Overview

2011-12-12T06:39:00.000-08:00

RGE 2012 Outlook Overview:

- Eurozone in deep recession;
- United States at stall speed with 50 percent double dip risk;
- China (in) sharp slowdown;

(source: Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economic Outlook: Q1 2012 Risks

2011-12-08T05:38:00.000-08:00

If economy grew only 1.5 percent in Q3/Q4 and we have a 1.5 percent of GDP fiscal drag in 2012, by Q1 2012 we are back to sharp double dip recession risk. - in NR`s Twitter

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

ECB Will Cut Policy Rate & Loosen Collateral Requirements

2011-12-07T10:52:00.000-08:00

ECB will cut the policy rate, loosen collateral requirements, lengthen maturity of loans to Eurozone banks. Not enough to avoid the Eurozone recession. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone In Recession, US At Recession Risk

2011-12-07T07:08:00.000-08:00

Eurozone in recession; UK headed to recession; US at recession risk given weak growth, fiscal drag, Eurozone shocks, housing, oil; China slowing sharply. - in Newsmax

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Standard: One Of The Major Causes Of The Great Depression

2011-12-06T06:06:00.000-08:00

One of the major causes of the Great Depression was the existence of the gold standard. They restrained the ability of Central Banks to provide lender-of-last-resort support to their banks, created tight money — it created bank runs, and Lead eventually to the Great Depression. - in Yahoo Finance

Ticker, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: What Will Restore Growth?

2011-12-05T07:39:00.000-08:00

Key issue in Italy: what will restore growth given that the additional fiscal austerity and higher taxes will make the recession more severe? - in Twitter

Related, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Is Contemporary Art In A Bubble?

2011-12-03T04:27:00.000-08:00

Now in South Beach for Art Basel. Is contemporary art in a bubble? Possibly given skyrocketing valuations that look inflated. - in Twitter, Art Basel

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs A Primary Surplus Merely To Stabilize Its Debt

2011-12-02T04:33:00.000-08:00

Italy needs a primary surplus of 5 per cent of (GDP), not the current near-zero, merely to stabilize its debt. Soon real rates will be higher and growth negative. Moreover, the austerity that the (ECB) and Germany are imposing on Italy will turn recession into depression... - in OpEd News

ETFs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Friday`s Employment Report: What To Expect?

2011-12-01T05:12:00.000-08:00

ADP suggests 206,000 job growth in November; but TrimTabs data (based on daily Treas payroll tax & income data) suggests only 64,000. - in Twitter

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Central Banks Action Goes Against The Need To Weaken The Euro

2011-11-30T08:49:00.000-08:00

Central Banks action on currency swaps is a disguised form of Foreign Exchange intervention to stop US Dollar shortage weakening the Euro. So it goes against the need for weaker Euro. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

PIIGS Need A Weaker Euro, Not A Stronger One

2011-11-30T06:35:00.000-08:00

Eurozone's PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) need a weaker, not stronger Euro, to restore their competitiveness and avoid Eurozone break-up. But Central Banks` swaps action today makes the Euro stronger. - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), Bank of Ireland ADR (NYSE:IRE), National Bank of Greece ADR (NYSE:NBG), Banco Santander, S.A. ADR (NYSE:STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (ADR) (NYSE:BBVA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Fiscal Drag On The US Economy

2011-11-29T05:25:00.000-08:00

"If the economy is growing only 1.5 percent to 2 percent and you get a fiscal drag of 1.3 percent — that's the difference between a growth recession and effectively zero growth." - newsmax.com

Related, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Twitter Wars: The Gold Standard

2011-11-28T04:13:00.000-08:00

Nouriel Roubini decided to ask James Rickards, author of "Currency Wars," why he advocates for a return to the gold standard in his book "currency wars," when it was this return to gold that was a direct cause of the Great Depression. James Rickards responded by pointing out that it was not the return to gold, but rather the return to gold at the pre-WWI price that necessitated deflation, which exacerbated the depression. Nouriel then went to town on Rickards with, what became, full out, personal insults. He called James Rickards "arrogant" and said that the Wizard of OZ is a better read for those who want to understand the gold debate than Currency Wars.

Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Markets May Soon Crack

2011-11-27T08:16:00.000-08:00

Eurozone slow motion train wreck is becoming an accelerated one, as train reaching a thick brick wall. Markets, both equities and Eurozone bonds, may soon crack.

Related Tickers, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA ADR (NYSE:BBVA) Banco Santander, S.A. ADR (NYSE:STD), Deutsche Bank AG USA (NYSE:DB), Credit Agricole SA (EPA:ACA), BNP Paribas SA (EPA:BNP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

EURUSD: We Are Still Far Away From The 2002 Low

2011-11-26T18:13:00.000-08:00

In 2002 when there was no risk of sovereign debt crisis or Eurozone break-up EUR/USD fell well below parity to 0.8200. So we are still 50 percent away from that. - in Twitter

Tickers, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy May Soon Be Forced To Restructure Its Public Debt

2011-11-25T06:00:00.000-08:00

As I wrote in my Financial Times op-ed weeks ago, Italy may soon be forced to restructure its public debt and even that isn't sufficient. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Excessive Austerity Is Pushing EuroZone Into A Depression

2011-11-24T08:37:00.000-08:00

Monti is right to argue that fiscal targets should be cyclically-adjusted. Excessive austerity in a recession is pushing Eurozone into a depression. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economy: Dismal Durable Good Report

2011-11-23T05:57:00.000-08:00

Dismal durable goods report implies further downward revision to downward revised 2% Q3 growth & bodes poorly for Q4 growth. Shipments down. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Beauty Contest: Who Is The Least Ugly?

2011-11-23T05:22:00.000-08:00

The dollar & US Treasuries are like a beauty contest where the issue is not who is the prettiest or most handsome but who is the least ugly. - in NR`s Official Twitter

ETFs, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Higher Eurozone Break Up Risks

2011-11-22T03:48:00.000-08:00

EZ "aggregate risk" sharply up signals Eurozone break-up risk. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Standard 2.0 Will Get Us Great Depression 2.0

2011-11-21T06:20:00.000-08:00

The return to the Gold Standard caused the Great Depression. Now some gold bug lunatics want Gold Standard 2.0 to get us Great Depression 2.0. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related ETF, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Reduced Probability That Obama Job Plan Will Pass

2011-11-21T04:40:00.000-08:00

Automatic spending cuts in '13. But SuperCommitte collapse also reduces probability that Obama job plan passes. Thus large fiscal drag in '12. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Emerging Markets Cannot Fully Decouple

2011-11-20T06:38:00.000-08:00

Related ETF, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The euro-zone crisis seems to be reaching its climax

2011-11-17T06:21:00.000-08:00

The euro-zone crisis seems to be reaching its climax, with Greece on the verge of default and an inglorious exit from the monetary union, and now Italy on the verge of losing market access. But the euro zone’s problems are much deeper. They are structural and they severely affect at least four other economies: Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Spain.

For the past decade, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) were the euro zone’s consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger current-account deficits. Meanwhile, the euro-zone core (Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and France) comprised the producers of first and last resort, spending below their incomes and running ever-larger current-account surpluses.

These external imbalances were also driven by the euro’s strength since 2002, and by the divergence in real exchange rates and competitiveness within the euro zone. - in www.businessday.co.za

Etfs, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable ETF (EWN)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Spain Is As Much Of A Disaster As Italy

2011-11-16T03:35:00.000-08:00

Well right now, the worries in the market are about Italy, but Spain is as much of a disaster as Italy. There debt as a share of GDP is lower, but their deficit is higher. Unemployment, 20 percent including young people, 40 percent. - in a recent interview, Moscow

Related ETfs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Details On The Empire State Index Are Not So Good

2011-11-15T07:15:00.001-08:00

Empire State index headline higher but details are much weaker and point to a lower ISM. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

German Schizophrenia

2011-11-15T05:28:00.000-08:00

German schizophrenia on the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort: Weidemann says no way; government adviser says it may be only option; law professor suing ECB as SMP illegal. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

ETFs, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The ECB Made Huge Policy Mistakes In 2008 And 2011

2011-11-14T03:57:00.000-08:00

The European Central Bank made major policy mistakes in 2008 and 2011 hiking rates while Eurozone was falling in recession and in financial/fiscal crises, exacerbating them. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: Stock And Flow Problems

2011-11-12T09:29:00.000-08:00

Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt. That would partially address its 'stock' problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its 'flow' problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity.

To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone.

Even a restructuring of the debt – that will cause significant damage and losses to creditors in Italy and abroad – will not restore growth and competitiveness...if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. - in FT.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: If You Cannot Devalue Or Grow, The Only Option Is To Give Up On The Euro

2011-11-11T05:16:00.000-08:00

So if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. Of course that will trigger a forced conversion of euro debts into new national currency debts. - in forbes

Related stocks and ETFs, Ishares Msci Italy Index (EWI), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Banca Popolare di Milano (BIT:PMI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

End Game For The Eurozone

2011-11-10T07:28:00.000-08:00

It will be soon an end-game for the Eurozone: restructurings and exits till break-up. Slow motion train wreck. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Crisis: Here Are the Options, Now Choose

2011-11-09T06:37:00.000-08:00

You can read the article in full here, Eurozone Crisis: Here Are the Options, Now Choose

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece: It`s Time For The Country To Default And Exit The Eurozone

2011-11-09T06:32:00.000-08:00

Greece is insolvent, uncompetitive and stuck in an ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by harsh and excessive fiscal consolidation. It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone (EZ) and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth.

Exit will require a conversion of euro liabilities into the new currency to limit the balance sheet effects that the depreciation of the new national currency will entail. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The International Experience Of “Internal Devaluations” Is Mostly One Of Failure

2011-11-08T06:38:00.000-08:00

The international experience of “internal devaluations” is mostly one of failure. Argentina tried the deflation route to a real depreciation and, after three years of an ever-deepening recession/depression, it defaulted and exited its currency board peg.

The case of Latvia’s “successful” internal devaluation is not a model for the EZ periphery: Output fell by 20% and unemployment surged to 20%; the public debt was—unlike in the EZ periphery—negligible as a percentage of GDP and thus a small amount of official finance—a few billion euros—was enough to backstop the country without the massive balance-sheet effects of deflation; and the willingness of the policy makers to sweat blood and tears to avoid falling into the arms of the “Russian bear” was, for a while, unlimited (as opposed to the EZ periphery’s unwillingness to give up altogether its fiscal independence to Germany); and even after devaluation and default was avoided, the current backlash against such draconian adjustment is now very serious and risks undermining such efforts (while, equivalently, the social and political backlash against recessionary austerity is coming to a boil in the Eurozone periphery). - in The New York Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs A Respected And Competent Leader

2011-11-08T06:06:00.000-08:00

Replacing Berlusconi with one of his servile lackeys is unacceptable. Italy needs a credible government run by a respected and competent leader. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs Growth To Be Sustainable

2011-11-07T04:52:00.000-08:00

Italy, like rest of Eurozone periphery, needs rapid return to growth to be sustainable. Necessary austerity/reforms alone make recession worse in the short term. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greek Politics: New Democracy Wants To Run The Country Again

2011-11-06T04:05:00.000-08:00

The corrupt (New Democracy) who ramped up fiscal deficits to 15 percent of GDP and shamlessly lied about it now want to run Greece's government again. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe: Outlook Is Very Bearish

2011-11-05T07:53:00.000-07:00

Our view is very bearish. Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a significant risk of a Eurozone breakup. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

G20 Meeting: Kicking The Cannes Down The Road

2011-11-04T07:53:00.001-07:00

G20: Kicking the Cannes down the road until hits a brick wall. United States kicks the deficit can; Eurozone kicks the crisis can and China kicks the currency can. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Must Grow At 8% A Year To Maintain Social And Political Stability

2011-11-03T11:47:00.000-07:00

He says China must expand 8 percent a year just to keep enough people employed to "maintain its social and political stability. - in FDL Reporter

Ticker, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

ECB Interest Rate Cut: Unexpected But Correct And Necessary

2011-11-03T07:46:00.000-07:00

Draghi starts his term making a first, unexpected but correct and necessary, step: cutting the ECB policy rate to 1.25 percent from 1.5 percent. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greek Referendum Makes A Disorderly Eurozone Crisis More Likely

2011-11-02T11:42:00.000-07:00

Greek referendum makes Scenario 3 in the RGE paper more likely: a disorderly Eurozone crisis before Spain and Italy are ring fenced. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, Ishares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Should Default and Abandon the Euro

2011-11-02T07:15:00.000-07:00

- Greece is insolvent, uncompetitive and stuck in an ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by harsh and excessive fiscal consolidation. It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone (EZ) and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth.

- Exit will require a conversion of euro liabilities into the new currency to limit the balance sheet effects that the depreciation of the new national currency will entail.

- Greece can exit the monetary union in an orderly and negotiated manner (i.e. limit the collateral damage to its own economy and financial markets that this exit would imply) if orderly mechanisms are used and appropriate official finance is provided. Such official finance to Greece and other EZ members under stress will limit the contagion and the losses for other periphery and core creditor countries, and will ensure that the domestic Greek financial system and economy does not suffer a chaotic implosion.

- Default and exit will be painful and costly, but the alternative of a decade-long deflation and depression would be much worse, economically, financially and socially.

- Moreover, there are historical precedents for countries successfully taking the route of an orderly default on unsustainable foreign liabilities and exit from unsustainable currency pegs and/or currency boards. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Plan Is Already Flopping

2011-11-01T05:49:00.000-07:00

Roubini Global Economics argued that the Eurozone plan would flop. It is already flopping a few days after being announced "Last Shot on Goal". - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related tickers, National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:STD), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:RBS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Cartoon: Roman Empire

2011-10-31T11:03:00.001-07:00

Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

South Africa: Infrastructure And Human Capital Investments Are Essential

2011-10-31T05:19:00.000-07:00

Infrastructure & human capital investments (education, skills, health care) essential to raise SA's growth & leverage its natural resources. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

ETfs: iShares MSCI South Africa Index ETF (AMEX:EZA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

If China Has A Hard Landing, Commodity Prices Will Be Affected

2011-10-30T07:32:00.000-07:00

If China has a hard landing, for a period of time that's going to hurt growth and reduce commodity prices until China recovers and until the rest of the world recovers. - in The Australian

Related stocks, BHP Billiton Limited ADR (NYSE:BHP), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), Rio Tinto plc ADR (NYSE:RIO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Recession Is Already Ongoing In The Euro Zone

2011-10-29T08:00:00.000-07:00

The recession is already ongoing in the euro zone. People are going to say it's good financial engineering, but unless you have economic growth there is going to be a train wreck. - in The WSJ

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Markets To Turn Skeptical On Euro Deal

2011-10-28T06:59:00.000-07:00

In the next few weeks there will be questions about the viability of what has been decided and increasingly the markets are going to become skeptical this is a solution to the euro zone. - in an interview in Paris

Tickers, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (AMEX:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (AMEX:SDS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Plan: Little To Restore Growth & Competitiveness

2011-10-27T04:25:00.000-07:00

Little in Eurozone plan to restore growth/competitiveness. Without it financial schemes (greek haircut, bank recap, levered EFSF) alone will fail. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Indonesia Can Be Very Important In The Global Economy

2011-10-26T05:50:00.000-07:00

It is the time of rising power of the emerging markets and emerging Asia is the fastest growing region in the world. Indonesia is a country that can be very important in the global economy. - Newsmax.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China: Real Estate Booms Always End Up In Busts

2011-10-25T06:14:00.000-07:00

There could be a hard landing in China over the next two or three years. There's not a single episode of coming out of an over-investment boom with a soft landing. Real estate booms always end up in busts. - in Market Watch

Tickers, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (CAF), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

50% Probability Of A Recession

2011-10-24T06:12:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately, in my view there is a risk, at least a 50 percent probability, that in the U.S., in the eurozone, in the United Kingdom, and in most advanced economies, the future in the next 12 months might suggest a recession, a downturn, rather than reacceleration of growth. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Economic Models Must Properly Address Inequality

2011-10-23T05:08:00.000-07:00

Any economic model that does not properly address inequality will eventually face a crisis of legitimacy. - in Moneyweb

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy And Spain Need A Bazooka

2011-10-22T05:04:00.000-07:00

Italy and Spain need a “bazooka” to “have a fighting chance to avoid insolvency. Once you lost market confidence, they put pressure on your spreads. You look insolvent. - in The Financial Post

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.