In the second half, fiscal policy becomes a headwind, no more cash for clunkers. The positive scenario is that growth will be below par.
The big risk is that there will be a downturn in markets that could impact the bond, the equity and the credit markets.
Job losses have been higher, the US jobs number will show that. There is no private sector jobs growth. Consumption is weak, exports are weak and housing is weak. If there is no final sales and no final demand, companies will not invest.
Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID)