Nov 30, 2010

Official Resources Wouldn't Be Enough To Cover The Financing Needs Of Spain

"After bailout of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, official resources wouldn't be enough to cover the financing needs of the Spanish sovereign and its banks."

in Twitter

Fiscal Austerity Will Lead To Debt Restructuring Among Nations

"A period of low growth and low inflation in the U.S. and Europe is being exacerbated by rashly implemented fiscal austerity that will stifle growth and eventually lead to debt restructuring among nations and international institutions, economist Nouriel Roubini said Monday.

Debt restructuring is most probably "inevitable," said Mr. Roubini, a professor of economics and international business at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Governments are kicking the burden of fiscal responsibility down the line to international institutions, while failing to address the economic stagnation that will come from severe budget cuts, he said at an economic conference in the Czech capital."

in WSJ

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI)

Nov 29, 2010

Most Fiscal Consolidation Should Be Back-Loaded And Not Front-Loaded

"Ideally, in a world in which you can do it, every country should cut spending and raise taxes, but most fiscal consolidation should be back-loaded and not front-loaded as front-loading cuts economic activity."

in a Prague conference

Greece And Ireland Are Solvency Issues, Not Liquidity Issues.

"Greece & Ireland are solvency not liquidity issues. So official financing & bailing out even bank creditors only kicks the can down the road."

Related ETF and stocks: Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE), Allied Irish Banks, plc. (ADR) (NYSE:AIB), National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG)

Nov 23, 2010

Spain Is Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Be Bailed Out.

"You can try to ring fence Spain. You can provide financing to Ireland, Portugal and Greece for three years and try to leave them out of the market and maybe restructure their debt down the line. But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain.

Spain is too big to fail, on one side, and too big to be bailed out. In Spain, there’s a trillion Euro in public debt. On top of that public debt, you have almost a trillion of the foreign liabilities of the private sector — houses, financial institutions, corporates — Spain was running a current account deficit to finance the excessive spending of the private sector. So it’s not just public debt but private debt that has to be rolled over."


Nov 22, 2010

The US Tax Burden Is The Lowest Of Any Advanced Economy.

"The US tax burden is the lowest of any advanced economy. Down now to 15% of GDP from the already pathetically low 20% of GDP."

in Twitter

Nov 21, 2010

Bond Vigilantes And The US Government Bonds.

"The bond vigilantes have not woken up for the US treasury market—yet."

Nouriel Roubini - November, 2010

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Nov 17, 2010

The Real Threats Are Anemic Growth And Deflation, Not Inflation.

"Lets fight real threats - anemic growth, double dip risk, deflation risk - not phantom ghosts of inexistent goods inflation."

Nouriel Roubini, in Twitter

Nov 16, 2010

The Irish Are On A Path To Near Or Complete Insolvency.

"Put simply the Irish – like the Greeks – are on a path to near or complete insolvency. The reason the EU has so far decided to provide emergency financing to Greece and Ireland is not because it lacks a legal mechanism for orderly restructuring; it is rather because of concerns about systemic contagion."

in Financial Times, today

Nov 15, 2010

African Opportunities?

"Africa is risky because there is less liquidity and the governance is not ideal. But in comparison to 10 years ago when there was civil strife and unstable governments, many things have improved."

Nouriel Roubini, in Reuters

"Some of the better economies in Africa: South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda"

in Twitter

Overcapacity In Steel Production Is A Serious Problem.

"The overcapacity in steel production in the world is a serious problem that could lead to trade wars among countries and regions, Nouriel Roubini, the famed economist from New York University's Stern School of Business recently said, according to media reports.

This is a serious problem we have seen in a number of sectors, including steel, where there is overcapacity installed in China and other countries, says Roubini. He also stated that it is leading to a situation where either you don't produce, making factories lose money, or, if you produce at capacity, the increased output falls on weak demand and implies a collapsing price."


Related: United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS), ArcelorMittal (ADR) (NYSE:MT)

Nov 14, 2010

Investors Should Stop Chasing “Crowded” Trades In Emerging Markets

Economist Nouriel Roubini said in an interview out today that investors should stop chasing “crowded” trades in emerging markets. He believes that African markets such as Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania are better bets. The distinction is that such African countries are most often categorized as so-called frontier markets, even smaller and less-developed than emerging markets.

in Barron`s

Nov 10, 2010

Portugal And Ireland Will Soon Need The EFSF Or IMF Support.

"Portugal and Ireland will soon need the EFSF or IMF support as they are on the verge of losing market access as bond vigilantes are up in arms."

Nouriel Roubini, November 9th

Nov 9, 2010

If Defaults Keep Rising US Banks Will Be Insolvent Again.

"If 11.5 million more households default on their mortgages most US banks would be insolvent again."

Nouriel Roubini, Twitter, November 9

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) , Morgan Stanley (MS), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)

Nov 8, 2010

Going Back To A Gold Standard Is Undesirable.

"Going back to a Gold Standard regime or even global fix exchange rates - as suggested by Zoellick - is both undesirable and a pipe dream."

via Twitter, November 8th

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)

There Will Be More QE Efforts From The Federal Reserve.

Nouriel Roubini weighs in on the Fed's decision to institute a second round of quantitative easing and explains why he thinks we're likely to see further stimulus ahead. Plus, David Wessel and David Reilly on why criticism of QE2 is escalating.

in WSJ

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB) , PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT) , PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP)

Nov 5, 2010

Employment Report Analysis

Household survey: employment fell 330K last month & labor force participation rate at 25yr low. How does that square with 150K jobs gain?

Nov 4, 2010

QE2 Will Fail To Revive The Real Economy

"QE2 will be followed by QE3 and QE4 as QE2 will fail to revive the real economy and to prevent deflationary pressures..."

Nov 3, 2010

If House Prices Keep Falling, We Are Going To Have Another Disaster.

“If house prices are going to fall another 5% to 10%, another eight million households are going to be in negative equity. We are going to have another nasty crisis. That’s going to happen unless we do something about it. Forget about subprime, look at prime.”

in a Cape Town Conference

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM)

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) , Morgan Stanley (MS), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)

Nov 2, 2010

Emerging Markets: Prices May Be Running Ahead Of Economic Fundamentals.

“Prices may be running ahead of economic fundamentals. Still, the emerging market party can go on for a while."

Nouriel Roubini, in a Cape Town conference

Related ETF: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)