Jul 30, 2011

We Have Dual Speed Growth In Australia

Dual speed growth in Australia where resource sectors & regions are booming while retail/housing is weak. - In NR`s Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (ETF) (EWA)

Jul 29, 2011

This Isn`t A Soft Patch

Stall speed in the economy: Q2 growth down to 1.3 percent and Q1 growth revised to 0.4 percent. And Q3 starting on weak note. This isn't a soft patch. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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Jul 28, 2011

The Bond Market Beauty Contest

Bond market is a beauty contest about the least ugly:CDS spreads surging in Italy/Spain while debt ceiling saga isn't hurting US Treasuries. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: Banco Santander (STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BBVA), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BIT:BMPS), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Republicans Pretend To Be Born-Again Debt Virgins When They Fed The Beast

Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 times, Bush 7 times by 4 trillion dollars. Now Republicans pretend to be born-again debt virgins when they fed the beast. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Jul 27, 2011

I See The Chances That Greece Or Portugal Will Leave The Euro Zone At 30 Percent

In a few years the current rescue plan for Portugal will break down. The same holds for Ireland.

Euro-zone politicians may muddle through for another five years, but ultimately they will face very touch decisions. I see the chances that Greece or Portugal will leave the euro zone at 30 percent. - in Die Zeit, german newspaper

Related Tickers: Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE) Allied Irish Banks, plc. (ADR) (NYSE:AIB) Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:STD) Barclays PLC (ADR) (NYSE:BCS) Lloyds TSB Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:LYG) Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:RBS) HSBC Holdings plc (ADR) (NYSE:HBC)

Jul 26, 2011

Asian Financial Centers

Shanghai is still a long way in rivaling Hong Kong and Singapore as major financial center. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (ETF) (EWS), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (ETF) (EWH), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

The Problem Of Sovereign Risk Will Be A Serious One For Many Advanced Economies

The recovery has been so weak because this was not a traditional recession, but was a recession caused by a financial crisis brought on by too much debt and leverage first in the private sector and now in the public sector.

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The problem of sovereign risk will be a serious one for many advanced economies for many years to come. - in MarketWatch.com

I Don't Think The U.S. Will Default

There are about eight days until the deadline. My baseline scenario is still an agreement will be reached. I don't think the U.S. will default. - in a Shanghai Conference

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Jul 25, 2011

Raise The Ceiling!

Almost no democracy has a debt ceiling. This US farce is nonsense. A decade of bipartisan deficits and tax cuts led us here. Raise the ceiling! - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Any Deficit Reduction Requires Tax Hikes

Federal taxes were 20 percent of GDP at time of a balanced budget. Now down to 14 percent the lowest in 60 years. So any deficit reduction requires tax hikes. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

China’s Economy Is Overheating Now But Over Time Its Current Overinvestment Will Prove Deflationary Both Domestically And Globally

I recently took two trips to China just as the government launched its 12th Five-Year Plan to rebalance the country’s long-term growth model. My visits deepened my view that there is a potentially destabilizing contradiction between China’s short- and medium-term economic performance.

China’s economy is overheating now, but, over time, its current overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally. Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible – most likely after 2013 – China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Instead of focusing on securing a soft landing today, Chinese policymakers should be worrying about the brick wall that economic growth may hit in the second half of the quinquennium. - in Project Syndicate

Related: China Mobile (CHL), Aluminum Crop Of China (ACH), China Life Insurance (LFC), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

The Biggest Challenges Advanced Economies Will Be Facing

"So the problems of sovereign risk, of reducing budget deficits and of stabilizing public debt are not just challenges for the eurozone periphery; they will be the biggest challenges advanced economies will be facing." - in MSNBC.com

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Jul 21, 2011

The Housing Market

The housing "spring season" ended into a worsening depression: existing home sales collapsing, cancellations surging, prices falling faster. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), DR Horton (DHI)

Jul 20, 2011

The Eurozone Needs Policies To Restart Economic To Restart Economic Growth On Its Periphery.

"Finally, the eurozone needs policies to restart economic growth on its periphery. Without growth, any austerity and reform will deliver only social unrest and the constant threat of a political backlash, without restoring debt sustainability. To revive growth, the ECB needs to stop raising interest rates and reverse course. The eurozone should also pursue a policy – partially via looser monetary policy – that weakens the value of the euro significantly and restores the periphery’s competitiveness. And Germany should delay its austerity plan, as the last thing that the eurozone needs is a massive fiscal drag." - in Project Syndicate

Jul 19, 2011

The Eurozone Crisis Is Reaching Its Climax

The eurozone crisis is reaching its climax. Greece is insolvent. Portugal and Ireland have recently seen their bonds downgraded to junk status. Spain could still lose market access as political uncertainty adds to its fiscal and financial woes. Financial pressure on Italy is now mounting. - in The Eurozone's last stand

Greece: A Maturity Extension Would Still Provide Massive Debt Relief

Even if the face value of the Greek debt were not reduced, a maturity extension would still provide massive debt relief - on a present-value basis - to Greece as a euro of debt owed 30 years from now is worth much less today than the same euro owed a year from now. Moreover, a maturity extension resolves rollover risk for the coming decades. - in "The Eurozone's last stand"

Related Tickers: Related Tickers: National Bank Of Greece (NBG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Societe Generale SA (EPA:GLE), BNP Paribas SA (Public, EPA:BNP), Credit Agricole SA (EPA:ACA) Deutsche Bank AG (ETR:DBK), Banco Comercial Portugues SA (ELI:BCP)

The advantage of a par bond is that Greece's creditors - banks, insurance companies, and pension funds - would be able and allowed to continue valuing their Greek bonds at 100 cents on the euro, thereby avoiding massive losses on their balance sheets. That, in turn, would sharply contain the risk of financial contagion.

Jul 14, 2011

Greece: There Is No Likely Scenario In Which Public Debt Sustainability Can Be Restored Without A Restructuring

Even if Greece were to fully implement the draconian 10 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment program imposed by the IMF and the European Union, there is no likely scenario in which public debt sustainability could be restored without a restructuring. - in Roubini.com

Related Tickers: National bank Of Greece (NBG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Societe Generale SA (EPA:GLE), BNP Paribas SA (Public, EPA:BNP), Credit Agricole SA (Public, EPA:ACA) Deutsche Bank AG (ETR:DBK), Banco Comercial Portugues SA (ELI:BCP)

Jul 11, 2011

CNBC Video Interview: July


Topics: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman & co-founder, explains why there's a need for more fiscal stimulus, and the "perfect storm" of threats that could slam the economy by 2013.

I See Every Economy In The World Trying To Push Their Problems To The Future

I see every economy in the world trying to push their problems to the future. We start with private debt, public debt, supra-national debt—we're kicking the can down the road and eventually this is going to come to a head in 2013. - in CNBC

Related Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jul 8, 2011

The Second Half Recovery Is Going To Disappoint On The Downside

If we don't have enough job creation there's not enough labor income. Therefore, there's not enough consumption and consumer companies are going to be depressed. Therefore, the recovery is going to remain weak. The markets are expecting now a robust recovery in the second half of the year. I think the recovery is going to disappoint on the downside. - in CNBC

Related tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jul 7, 2011

The Perfect Storm

My prediction for the perfect storm is not this year or next year but 2013, because everybody is kicking the can down the road. We now have a problem in the US after the election if we don't resolve our fiscal problems. China is overheating...eventually it's going to have a hard landing. - in CNBC

Related tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)