Jun 28, 2011

One In Three Chance Of A "Perfect Storm"

There is a one in three chance a "perfect storm" of fiscal woe in the United States, a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring, and stagnation in Japan will converge to stunt global economic growth beginning in 2013. - in Boston.com

Tickers: Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWJ)

Jun 27, 2011

The Muddle-Through Approach To The Eurozone Crisis Has Failed To Resolve The Fundamental Problems Of Economic And Competitiveness Divergence Within The Union

The muddle-through approach to the eurozone crisis has failed to resolve the fundamental problems of economic and competitiveness divergence within the Union.

If this continues the euro will move toward disorderly debt workouts and eventually a break-up of the monetary union itself as some of the weaker members crash out. - in Mindful Money

Tickers: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWI), iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWU), iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable(ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWN)

Jun 23, 2011

Economic Outlook

Optimists argue that the global economy has merely hit a “soft patch". Firms and consumers reacted to this year’s shocks by “temporarily” slowing consumption, capital spending, and job creation. As long as the shocks don’t worsen (and as some become less acute), confidence and growth will recover in the second half of the year, and stock markets will rally again.

But there are good reasons to believe that we are experiencing a more persistent slump. First, the problems of the eurozone periphery are in some cases problems of actual insolvency, not illiquidity: large and rising public and private deficits and debt; damaged financial systems that need to be cleaned up and recapitalized; massive loss of competitiveness; lack of economic growth; and rising unemployment… - in WSJ

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)

Second, the factors slowing U.S. growth are chronic... Third, economic growth has been flat on average in the U.K. over the last couple of quarters, with front-loaded fiscal austerity coming at a time when rising inflation is preventing the Bank of England from easing monetary policy.

Jun 22, 2011

Debt In Greece, Ireland & Portugal Will Need To Be Restructed

“It is no longer possible to deny that public and/or private debts in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal will need to be restructured.” - in Barron`s

Tickers: National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE)

Jun 21, 2011

Growth In Canada Is Anemic

Growth in Canada is anemic in spite of tail winds from commodity prices as head winds from US & global tail risks remain. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: iShares MSCI Canada Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWC)

Greece and Portugal May Go Back To The Drachma And Escudo

"I don't rule out that Greece and Portugal...may go back to the drachma and escudo on a wave of populist governments." - in AsiaOne

Jun 20, 2011

Jun 16, 2011

Monetary Union: The Risks Of A Break-Up

“The euro will move towards disorderly debt workouts, and eventually a break-up of the monetary union itself, as some of the weaker members crash out. The crisis is evolving and scenarios that are treated as inconceivable today may not be so far-fetched five years from now. - in thetrumpet.com

Jun 15, 2011

Kicking The Can Down The Road

There are already elements of fragility. Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.” - at a media briefing in Singapore

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jun 14, 2011

China`s Hard Landing

"There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013." - in a financial conference, Singapore

Tickers: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

India Should Hike Rates

A commodity price shock increases inflation and reduces growth. It creates a policy trade-off for authorities: Should I care about growth and postpone raising rates, or should I care about inflation by tightening at the cost of hurting growth? It creates, definitely, much more complicated policy challenges.

In India’s case, further tightening is reasonably warranted, given that growth has been robust and inflation has picked up, and also considering that policy rates remain negative in real terms. - in www.business-standard.com

Jun 13, 2011

I Don`t Think There Is A Bond Bubble

"At current levels, U.S. treasuries are fairly valued. I don't think there is a bond bubble.

Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion, and every other week there is another tail risk or black swan event, people dump the euro, dump yen and go to the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries." - in Reuters

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)

Jun 9, 2011

The Housing Market Is Already Double Dipping

“One sector of the market that is already double-dipping is the housing market, residential real estate,” he said. Before all is said and done, almost 50% percent of houses are going to be in negative equity.” - in a conference, Waldorf Astoria Hotel NYC

Jun 8, 2011

The Global Economy

“The global economy is a glass that is half full and half empty.” - in GlobeSt

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jun 6, 2011

The US Economy Is Close To Stall Speed

"US economy now close to stall speed. From anemic recovery to tipping point to stall speed and growth recession. Is a double dip next?" - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jun 5, 2011

A Giant Ponzi Scheme

"Greece: throwing more good money after bad money to bail out - rather than bailing in - reckless creditors. A giant Ponzi scheme." - in Nouriel`s Twitter, June 2

Tickers: National Bank Of Greece (NBG)

Jun 3, 2011

Anemic Growth Turning Into A Double Dip?

Anemic subpar U-shaped growth becomes "soft patch" then turns into stall speed and may soon turn into a double dip. Consensus in sharp retreat. - in Nouriel`s Twitter, June 2

Related Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Jun 2, 2011

As I Predicted A Week Ago...

As I predicted a week ago "Roubini Sees Stock-Correction 'Tipping Point' on Slowdown" - in Twitter

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

Jun 1, 2011

The World Economy Is Losing Strength

"The world economy is losing strength halfway through the year as high oil prices and fallout from Japan's natural disaster and Europe's debt woes take their toll.... Until two weeks ago I'd say markets were shrugging off all these concerns, saying they don't matter because they were believing the global economic recovery was on track. But I think right now we're on the tipping point of a market correction.

With slow global economic growth, they're going to surprise on the downside. We're going to see the beginning of a correction that's going to increase volatility and that's going to increase risk aversion." in "Roubini Sees Stock-Correction 'Tipping Point'", Bloomberg

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)