Gold Futures Fell For A 6th Straight Session

Gold futures fell for a sixth straight session, the longest slump since March 2009, with a 1.5 percent drop to $1,540.90.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related ETFs and stocks, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Perfect Storm

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the US, a disorderly scenario in the Eurozone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in advisor.ca

Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

An Eurozone Recession Is Certain (Depth And Length Cannot Be Predicted)

'At this point, an eurozone recession is certain (...) while its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a severe downturn.' - excerpt from Roubini`s outlook for next year titled Fragile and unbalanced in 2012

Related, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Home Prices Still Falling. Expect More Of The Same In 2012.

US home prices still falling as supply (including foreclosures) exceeds demand. Expect more of same in 2012 with millions more households underwater.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

Related, DR Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), Lennar Corp (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Durable Goods Orders Are Weak

Excluding the volatile military and aircraft components durable goods fell 1.2 percent, the worst since January.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Perfect Storm

By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the U.S., a disorderly scenario in the euro zone and a hard landing in China could materialize. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has Been In Denial

The Eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Political Constraints Have Led Leaders To Avoid The Short-Term Pain & Political Costs Of Tough Decisions

The US has postponed its fiscal consolidation and avoided the other structural reforms – investments in infrastructure, education and skills and changes to energy policy – that are required to restore its potential growth rate. The eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union. China has persisted in its weak currency, to support its export and investment-led growth model where savings are too high and consumption too low.

In all cases political constraints – the approaching elections in the US and leadership transition in China at the end of 2012, and the inability of the eurozone’s 17 governments and coalitions to coordinate policies coherently while staggered elections and changes of government take place – have led leaders to avoid the short-term pain and political costs of tough decisions that will yield benefits only over the medium term. - in Economonitor

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Plea To Policymakers: We Can’t Risk Another Year Of Delay

For the last three years the world’s biggest economies - the US, eurozone and China - have been living up to the infuriating euphemism so beloved of policymakers: ”kicking the can down the road”. They have been avoiding the tough decisions that are required to address their fundamental economic, financial and fiscal problems. - excerpt from the FT.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Brazil: Growth Is Slowing Sharply

Brazil has been hyped too much lately. Growth is slowing sharply.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official twitter)

ETFs, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx ETF (EEM), Petroleo Brasileiro SA ADR (PBR), Itau Unibanco Holding SA ADR (ITUB), Banco Bradesco SA ADR (BBD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Video: "Conferencias Do Estoril" (Portugal)

Nouriel speaking at "Conferências do Estoril", Portugal.

Topics: Financial crisis, eurozone and the portuguese situation;

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone: A Recession Is Certain

At this point, a eurozone recession is certain. While its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign-debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a serious downturn.

(Source: Project Syndicate)

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Outlook For The Global Economy In 2012 Is Clear (But It Isn’t Pretty)

The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn’t pretty: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China.

Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the eurozone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

(Source: Project Syndicate)

Related ETFs, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini: Two Perspectives on the Crisis

Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini: Two Perspectives on the Crisis,

New York University's Department of Italian Studies
Casa Italiana Zerilli-Marimò
Global and Joint Program Studies at the
Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute

present "Italy and the U.S. Two Perspectives on the Crisis"

Featuring:
Roberto Saviano and Nouriel Roubini

Moderated by:
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Chair, NYU Department of Italian Studies

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Will Slow Sharply In 2012

RGE view: China slows down sharply in 2012 to 7.4 percent growth from 9.1 percent in 2011. Not yet full hard landing but sharper slowdown than most expect.

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Consumption Is Weak

Consumers slowing down retail spending after modest Q3 binge. Once properly corrected for discretionary service spending consumption is weak.

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

Related, Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

RGE 2012 Outlook Overview

RGE 2012 Outlook Overview:

- Eurozone in deep recession;
- United States at stall speed with 50 percent double dip risk;
- China (in) sharp slowdown;

(source: Twitter)

Related ETFs, ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economic Outlook: Q1 2012 Risks

If economy grew only 1.5 percent in Q3/Q4 and we have a 1.5 percent of GDP fiscal drag in 2012, by Q1 2012 we are back to sharp double dip recession risk. - in NR`s Twitter

ETFs, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

ECB Will Cut Policy Rate & Loosen Collateral Requirements

ECB will cut the policy rate, loosen collateral requirements, lengthen maturity of loans to Eurozone banks. Not enough to avoid the Eurozone recession. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone In Recession, US At Recession Risk

Eurozone in recession; UK headed to recession; US at recession risk given weak growth, fiscal drag, Eurozone shocks, housing, oil; China slowing sharply. - in Newsmax

ETFs, United States Oil Fund (USO), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Standard: One Of The Major Causes Of The Great Depression

One of the major causes of the Great Depression was the existence of the gold standard. They restrained the ability of Central Banks to provide lender-of-last-resort support to their banks, created tight money — it created bank runs, and Lead eventually to the Great Depression. - in Yahoo Finance

Ticker, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: What Will Restore Growth?

Key issue in Italy: what will restore growth given that the additional fiscal austerity and higher taxes will make the recession more severe? - in Twitter

Related, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Is Contemporary Art In A Bubble?

Now in South Beach for Art Basel. Is contemporary art in a bubble? Possibly given skyrocketing valuations that look inflated. - in Twitter, Art Basel

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs A Primary Surplus Merely To Stabilize Its Debt

Italy needs a primary surplus of 5 per cent of (GDP), not the current near-zero, merely to stabilize its debt. Soon real rates will be higher and growth negative. Moreover, the austerity that the (ECB) and Germany are imposing on Italy will turn recession into depression... - in OpEd News

ETFs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Friday`s Employment Report: What To Expect?

ADP suggests 206,000 job growth in November; but TrimTabs data (based on daily Treas payroll tax & income data) suggests only 64,000. - in Twitter

Related, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Central Banks Action Goes Against The Need To Weaken The Euro

Central Banks action on currency swaps is a disguised form of Foreign Exchange intervention to stop US Dollar shortage weakening the Euro. So it goes against the need for weaker Euro. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

PIIGS Need A Weaker Euro, Not A Stronger One

Eurozone's PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) need a weaker, not stronger Euro, to restore their competitiveness and avoid Eurozone break-up. But Central Banks` swaps action today makes the Euro stronger. - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), Bank of Ireland ADR (NYSE:IRE), National Bank of Greece ADR (NYSE:NBG), Banco Santander, S.A. ADR (NYSE:STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (ADR) (NYSE:BBVA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Fiscal Drag On The US Economy

"If the economy is growing only 1.5 percent to 2 percent and you get a fiscal drag of 1.3 percent — that's the difference between a growth recession and effectively zero growth." - newsmax.com

Related, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Twitter Wars: The Gold Standard

Nouriel Roubini decided to ask James Rickards, author of "Currency Wars," why he advocates for a return to the gold standard in his book "currency wars," when it was this return to gold that was a direct cause of the Great Depression. James Rickards responded by pointing out that it was not the return to gold, but rather the return to gold at the pre-WWI price that necessitated deflation, which exacerbated the depression. Nouriel then went to town on Rickards with, what became, full out, personal insults. He called James Rickards "arrogant" and said that the Wizard of OZ is a better read for those who want to understand the gold debate than Currency Wars.

Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Markets May Soon Crack

Eurozone slow motion train wreck is becoming an accelerated one, as train reaching a thick brick wall. Markets, both equities and Eurozone bonds, may soon crack.

Related Tickers, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA ADR (NYSE:BBVA) Banco Santander, S.A. ADR (NYSE:STD), Deutsche Bank AG USA (NYSE:DB), Credit Agricole SA (EPA:ACA), BNP Paribas SA (EPA:BNP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

EURUSD: We Are Still Far Away From The 2002 Low

In 2002 when there was no risk of sovereign debt crisis or Eurozone break-up EUR/USD fell well below parity to 0.8200. So we are still 50 percent away from that. - in Twitter

Tickers, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy May Soon Be Forced To Restructure Its Public Debt

As I wrote in my Financial Times op-ed weeks ago, Italy may soon be forced to restructure its public debt and even that isn't sufficient. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Excessive Austerity Is Pushing EuroZone Into A Depression

Monti is right to argue that fiscal targets should be cyclically-adjusted. Excessive austerity in a recession is pushing Eurozone into a depression. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economy: Dismal Durable Good Report

Dismal durable goods report implies further downward revision to downward revised 2% Q3 growth & bodes poorly for Q4 growth. Shipments down. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Beauty Contest: Who Is The Least Ugly?

The dollar & US Treasuries are like a beauty contest where the issue is not who is the prettiest or most handsome but who is the least ugly. - in NR`s Official Twitter

ETFs, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Higher Eurozone Break Up Risks

EZ "aggregate risk" sharply up signals Eurozone break-up risk. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold Standard 2.0 Will Get Us Great Depression 2.0

The return to the Gold Standard caused the Great Depression. Now some gold bug lunatics want Gold Standard 2.0 to get us Great Depression 2.0. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related ETF, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Reduced Probability That Obama Job Plan Will Pass

Automatic spending cuts in '13. But SuperCommitte collapse also reduces probability that Obama job plan passes. Thus large fiscal drag in '12. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Emerging Markets Cannot Fully Decouple

Related ETF, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The euro-zone crisis seems to be reaching its climax

The euro-zone crisis seems to be reaching its climax, with Greece on the verge of default and an inglorious exit from the monetary union, and now Italy on the verge of losing market access. But the euro zone’s problems are much deeper. They are structural and they severely affect at least four other economies: Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Spain.

For the past decade, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) were the euro zone’s consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger current-account deficits. Meanwhile, the euro-zone core (Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and France) comprised the producers of first and last resort, spending below their incomes and running ever-larger current-account surpluses.

These external imbalances were also driven by the euro’s strength since 2002, and by the divergence in real exchange rates and competitiveness within the euro zone. - in www.businessday.co.za

Etfs, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable ETF (EWN)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Spain Is As Much Of A Disaster As Italy

Well right now, the worries in the market are about Italy, but Spain is as much of a disaster as Italy. There debt as a share of GDP is lower, but their deficit is higher. Unemployment, 20 percent including young people, 40 percent. - in a recent interview, Moscow

Related ETfs, iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Details On The Empire State Index Are Not So Good

Empire State index headline higher but details are much weaker and point to a lower ISM. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

German Schizophrenia

German schizophrenia on the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort: Weidemann says no way; government adviser says it may be only option; law professor suing ECB as SMP illegal. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

ETFs, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The ECB Made Huge Policy Mistakes In 2008 And 2011

The European Central Bank made major policy mistakes in 2008 and 2011 hiking rates while Eurozone was falling in recession and in financial/fiscal crises, exacerbating them. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: Stock And Flow Problems

Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt. That would partially address its 'stock' problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its 'flow' problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity.

To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone.

Even a restructuring of the debt – that will cause significant damage and losses to creditors in Italy and abroad – will not restore growth and competitiveness...if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. - in FT.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy: If You Cannot Devalue Or Grow, The Only Option Is To Give Up On The Euro

So if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. Of course that will trigger a forced conversion of euro debts into new national currency debts. - in forbes

Related stocks and ETFs, Ishares Msci Italy Index (EWI), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Banca Popolare di Milano (BIT:PMI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

End Game For The Eurozone

It will be soon an end-game for the Eurozone: restructurings and exits till break-up. Slow motion train wreck. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Crisis: Here Are the Options, Now Choose

You can read the article in full here, Eurozone Crisis: Here Are the Options, Now Choose

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece: It`s Time For The Country To Default And Exit The Eurozone

Greece is insolvent, uncompetitive and stuck in an ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by harsh and excessive fiscal consolidation. It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone (EZ) and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth.

Exit will require a conversion of euro liabilities into the new currency to limit the balance sheet effects that the depreciation of the new national currency will entail. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The International Experience Of “Internal Devaluations” Is Mostly One Of Failure

The international experience of “internal devaluations” is mostly one of failure. Argentina tried the deflation route to a real depreciation and, after three years of an ever-deepening recession/depression, it defaulted and exited its currency board peg.

The case of Latvia’s “successful” internal devaluation is not a model for the EZ periphery: Output fell by 20% and unemployment surged to 20%; the public debt was—unlike in the EZ periphery—negligible as a percentage of GDP and thus a small amount of official finance—a few billion euros—was enough to backstop the country without the massive balance-sheet effects of deflation; and the willingness of the policy makers to sweat blood and tears to avoid falling into the arms of the “Russian bear” was, for a while, unlimited (as opposed to the EZ periphery’s unwillingness to give up altogether its fiscal independence to Germany); and even after devaluation and default was avoided, the current backlash against such draconian adjustment is now very serious and risks undermining such efforts (while, equivalently, the social and political backlash against recessionary austerity is coming to a boil in the Eurozone periphery). - in The New York Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs A Respected And Competent Leader

Replacing Berlusconi with one of his servile lackeys is unacceptable. Italy needs a credible government run by a respected and competent leader. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy Needs Growth To Be Sustainable

Italy, like rest of Eurozone periphery, needs rapid return to growth to be sustainable. Necessary austerity/reforms alone make recession worse in the short term. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greek Politics: New Democracy Wants To Run The Country Again

The corrupt (New Democracy) who ramped up fiscal deficits to 15 percent of GDP and shamlessly lied about it now want to run Greece's government again. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe: Outlook Is Very Bearish

Our view is very bearish. Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a significant risk of a Eurozone breakup. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

G20 Meeting: Kicking The Cannes Down The Road

G20: Kicking the Cannes down the road until hits a brick wall. United States kicks the deficit can; Eurozone kicks the crisis can and China kicks the currency can. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Must Grow At 8% A Year To Maintain Social And Political Stability

He says China must expand 8 percent a year just to keep enough people employed to "maintain its social and political stability. - in FDL Reporter

Ticker, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

ECB Interest Rate Cut: Unexpected But Correct And Necessary

Draghi starts his term making a first, unexpected but correct and necessary, step: cutting the ECB policy rate to 1.25 percent from 1.5 percent. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greek Referendum Makes A Disorderly Eurozone Crisis More Likely

Greek referendum makes Scenario 3 in the RGE paper more likely: a disorderly Eurozone crisis before Spain and Italy are ring fenced. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers, Ishares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Should Default and Abandon the Euro

- Greece is insolvent, uncompetitive and stuck in an ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by harsh and excessive fiscal consolidation. It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone (EZ) and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth.

- Exit will require a conversion of euro liabilities into the new currency to limit the balance sheet effects that the depreciation of the new national currency will entail.

- Greece can exit the monetary union in an orderly and negotiated manner (i.e. limit the collateral damage to its own economy and financial markets that this exit would imply) if orderly mechanisms are used and appropriate official finance is provided. Such official finance to Greece and other EZ members under stress will limit the contagion and the losses for other periphery and core creditor countries, and will ensure that the domestic Greek financial system and economy does not suffer a chaotic implosion.

- Default and exit will be painful and costly, but the alternative of a decade-long deflation and depression would be much worse, economically, financially and socially.

- Moreover, there are historical precedents for countries successfully taking the route of an orderly default on unsustainable foreign liabilities and exit from unsustainable currency pegs and/or currency boards. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Plan Is Already Flopping

Roubini Global Economics argued that the Eurozone plan would flop. It is already flopping a few days after being announced "Last Shot on Goal". - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related tickers, National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:STD), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:RBS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Cartoon: Roman Empire

Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

South Africa: Infrastructure And Human Capital Investments Are Essential

Infrastructure & human capital investments (education, skills, health care) essential to raise SA's growth & leverage its natural resources. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

ETfs: iShares MSCI South Africa Index ETF (AMEX:EZA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

If China Has A Hard Landing, Commodity Prices Will Be Affected

If China has a hard landing, for a period of time that's going to hurt growth and reduce commodity prices until China recovers and until the rest of the world recovers. - in The Australian

Related stocks, BHP Billiton Limited ADR (NYSE:BHP), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), Rio Tinto plc ADR (NYSE:RIO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Recession Is Already Ongoing In The Euro Zone

The recession is already ongoing in the euro zone. People are going to say it's good financial engineering, but unless you have economic growth there is going to be a train wreck. - in The WSJ

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Markets To Turn Skeptical On Euro Deal

In the next few weeks there will be questions about the viability of what has been decided and increasingly the markets are going to become skeptical this is a solution to the euro zone. - in an interview in Paris

Tickers, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (AMEX:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (AMEX:SDS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Plan: Little To Restore Growth & Competitiveness

Little in Eurozone plan to restore growth/competitiveness. Without it financial schemes (greek haircut, bank recap, levered EFSF) alone will fail. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Indonesia Can Be Very Important In The Global Economy

It is the time of rising power of the emerging markets and emerging Asia is the fastest growing region in the world. Indonesia is a country that can be very important in the global economy. - Newsmax.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China: Real Estate Booms Always End Up In Busts

There could be a hard landing in China over the next two or three years. There's not a single episode of coming out of an over-investment boom with a soft landing. Real estate booms always end up in busts. - in Market Watch

Tickers, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (CAF), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

50% Probability Of A Recession

Unfortunately, in my view there is a risk, at least a 50 percent probability, that in the U.S., in the eurozone, in the United Kingdom, and in most advanced economies, the future in the next 12 months might suggest a recession, a downturn, rather than reacceleration of growth. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Economic Models Must Properly Address Inequality

Any economic model that does not properly address inequality will eventually face a crisis of legitimacy. - in Moneyweb

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Italy And Spain Need A Bazooka

Italy and Spain need a “bazooka” to “have a fighting chance to avoid insolvency. Once you lost market confidence, they put pressure on your spreads. You look insolvent. - in The Financial Post

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Soft Landing In China? Mission Impossible.

The prospect of a soft landing in China is a “mission impossible". - in Bloomberg

Ticker, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (AMEX:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

What Is Individually Rational For One Firm Is Destructive In The Aggregate

Firms in advanced economies are now cutting jobs, owing to inadequate final demand, which has led to excess capacity, and to uncertainty about future demand. But cutting jobs weakens final demand further, because it reduces labor income and increases inequality. Because a firm’s labor costs are someone else’s labor income and demand, what is individually rational for one firm is destructive in the aggregate. - in The Instability of Inequality

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone: Do They Really Have A Plan?

Eurozone so far has had a plan to have a plan to rescue the Eurozone. We will see on Sunday if they do have a real plan or more cheap talk. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe Is Still A Disaster. The Crisis Has Spread.

"Unless you have economic growth in the area you're not going to solve the euro-zone crisis, warning of a potential global economic crisis.

It's not about Greece anymore. The crisis has spread to Spain, Italy and even Germany.

Europe is still a disaster zone and the likelihood that a weaker country will exit the union is still high. In case of a disorderly default, we're going to have a global economic crisis and a recession in developed economies. We are running out of policy options. - in The WSJ.com

Tickers, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (AMEX:EWP), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (AMEX:EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (AMEX:EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Massages Its Economic Data

China massages/manipulates its macro/GDP data. 1st country to publish GDP estimate 2 weeks after end of a quarter. In US it takes 4 weeks. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Economic Models & Inequality

Any economic model that does not properly address inequality will eventually face a crisis of legitimacy. in Newsmax.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

This Year Has Witnessed A Global Wave Of Social And Political Turmoil And Instability

This year has witnessed a global wave of social and political turmoil and instability, with masses of people pouring into the real and virtual streets: the Arab Spring; riots in London; Israel’s middle-class protests against high housing prices and an inflationary squeeze on living standards; protesting Chilean students; the destruction in Germany of the expensive cars of “fat cats”; India’s movement against corruption; mounting unhappiness with corruption and inequality in China; and now the “Occupy Wall Street” movement in New York and across the United States.

While these protests have no unified theme, they express in different ways the serious concerns of the world’s working and middle classes about their prospects in the face of the growing concentration of power among economic, financial, and political elites.

The causes of their concern are clear enough: high unemployment and underemployment in advanced and emerging economies; inadequate skills and education for young people and workers to compete in a globalized world; resentment against corruption, including legalized forms like lobbying; and a sharp rise in income and wealth inequality in advanced and fast-growing emerging-market economies. - in Reuters

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The US Economy: Worst Economic Slump Since The 1930`s

Notwithstanding repeated attempts at monetary and fiscal stimulus since 2009, the United States remains mired in what is by far its worst economic slump since that of the 1930s.

More than 25 million working-age Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, the employment-to- population ratio lingers at a near-historic low of 58.3 percent

Business investment continues at historically weak levels, and consumption expenditure remains weighed down by massive private sector debt overhang left by the bursting of the housing and credit bubble a bit over three years ago. Recovery from what already has been dubbed the “Great Recession” has been so weak thus far that real GDP has yet to surpass its previous peak. And yet, already there are signs of a possible renewed recession. - in The Way Forward by Daniel Alpert, Robert Hockett, Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Thoughts On The Occupy Wall Street Movement

My view of it is that it is a symptom of the economic malaise that we're facing not just in the United States, but all over the world. It started with the Arab Spring, and of course, poverty, unemployment, corruption, inequality eventually leads to people becoming restless. But now, you have middle-class people in Israel saying we cannot afford homes; you have middle-class students in Chile saying we don't have education; you have riots in London; people smashing Mercedes and BMWs of fat cats in Berlin and Frankfurt; you have an anti-corruption movement in India. It takes a lot of different manifestations, but we live in a world with a lot of economic insecurity, of worries about the future, of inequality, poverty, of concerns about jobs. And [Occupy Wall Street] is the manifestation in the U.S.

In 2009, [President Barack] Obama told the bankers, "I'm the only one who's standing between you and the pitchforks." The bankers got the bailouts; they were supposed to extend credit, extend mortgages. They did pretty much nothing, and they went back to the same actions as before: making money through trading. At this point, I think people are fed up with it. Rightly or wrongly, there's a huge amount of anger.



Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

You Need An EFSF That Is 4 Times As Large

You need an EFSF that is 4 times as large as the 440 (billion euros) to make sure that a bad equilibrium and a self fulfilling run on Italy and Spain doesn't occur," he said. "There's no plan for that, because politically even the first EFSF has not yet been approved, let alone to triple it or quadruple it. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Mild Or Severe Recession?

The question is not whether or if there is going to be a double dip, but whether it's going to be mild or severe with another financial crisis. The answer on that depends on the euro zone. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Draghi Is In A Tough Spot

Mario Draghi may be forced to prove that he`s got anti-inflation cojones & thus not cut rates 2 days after he turns President even if the EuroZone is in recession. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The True Unemployment Picture

(The) unemployment rate, including discouraged & partially employed workers - is up to 16.5 percent. Including millions in jail it is over 20 percent now. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Trichet Leaves Giving A Finger To The Markets

Trichet leaves giving a finger to the markets, thus leaving to Mario Draghi the dirty job of doing the right thing at risk of pissing off Germans. - in Seeking Alpha

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Must Exit The Eurozone And Return To The Drachma Rapidly

Greece is insolvent, uncompetitive and stuck in an ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by harsh and excessive fiscal consolidation. It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Karl Marx Had It Right

Karl Marx had it right. At some point, capitalism can self-destroy itself. That's because you cannot keep on shifting income from labor to capital without not having an excess capacity and a lack of aggregate demand. We thought that markets work. They are not working. What's individually rational ... is a self-destructive process. - in The WSJ

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Commodities In Bear Market Territory, Pricing Double Dip

Commodities S&P GSCI Index dropped 24 percent since April, signalling a bear market. Commodities starting to price double dip. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), United States Oil fund (USO), IShares Silver ETF (SLV), Powershares DB Base Metals Fund ETF (NYSE:DBB)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Gold: A Volatile, Unstable Risky Asset

Gold went to a high of 1920 to a low of 1520 last week only to rise back a modest 6% now. A most volatile, unstable, fickle & risky asset. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Question Is: Will The Recession Be Mild Or Severe?

The question is, will the recession be mild or severe? We are running out of policy bullets. - in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There`s Too Much Focus On Fiscal Austerity

There’s too much focus on fiscal austerity, which is important, but first you have to restore economic growth. - in a panel discussion at the European Forum of New Ideas

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

EFSF I, EFSF II & EFSF III

EFSF I was 250 billion euros; EFSF II is 440 billion but isnt enough. EFSF III will have to be 2 Trillion euros plus to bailout Italy/Spain. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Tickers: Ishares MSCI Italy Index (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

What Policies Are Needed To Solve The Crisis

I wrote a paper recently in which I have an eight-point plan to highlight the kind of policies which are needed. One, much more monetary and quantitative easing, not just quantitative easing but credit easing. Two, short-term fiscal stimulus in the countries that can still do it. The US, UK, Germany, core of the Eurozone, Japan, it’s the periphery that’s doing fiscal retrenchment. You have to postpone the austerity.

In the short-run, we need fiscal stimulus. We need to provide massive amounts of lender-of-last-resort support to Italy and Spain to make sure that illiquid but solvent sovereigns do not have a self-fulfilling run. We need an orderly restructuring of the debt of governments, of banks, of households that are insolvent. We need to have a massive recapitalization of the European banks through a TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) type of programme for the European banks. We need to support emerging markets by providing monetary and fiscal support to the countries that are going to get in trouble, and to provide support through the IMF and other international financial institutions. We have to provide credit to small and medium-sized enterprises and households that are squeezed. We need to have also an orderly exit of countries that are not going to regain competitiveness in the eurozone, like Greece and potentially also Portugal. And you have to do this in a clear, holistic and front-loaded way.

So there are many things that we need to do. I fear that the politicians in the US, in Europe, in UK are not going to have the political willingness to do it in their own countries, let alone coordinate it internationally. - in emerging markets magazine

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There Is A High Likelihood That There Is Going To Be Another Global Financial Crisis

In my view there is a high likelihood that there is going to be another global financial crisis. My data suggests that most advanced economies are already entering a recession. We’re not any more in an anaemic recovery, we’re not any more at stall speed. We’re at the beginning of a contraction. I think there’s a contraction already in most of the eurozone, there is a contraction in the US, also in the UK. That’s the first point.

The second point is we’re running out of policy bullets – monetary, fiscal – backstopping the financial system.

And third, the eurozone is a source of systemic risk. If there is a disorderly situation in the eurozone it’s going to be worse than Lehman.

At this point it’s not any more Greece or Ireland or Portugal. The contagion has spread to Italy and Spain. In the case of Italy and Spain the critical thing is that even if you believe that Italy and Spain are illiquid but solvent, even adjusting from the reforms, they’ve lost credibility in the markets. It’s going to take them at least a year to regain it.

Therefore you need a lender of last resort to backstop the sovereigns until they regain the credibility to avoid spreads going up and leading to a self-fulfilling run. And there are only a very few options, none of them feasible. One of them is the [eurobonds]. It’s going to take at least two years until they can pass that and it’s going to be approved by a treaty.

The other option is the ECB doing the dirty job. But the ECB constitutionally, legally, is not allowed to be a systemic lender of last resort for sovereigns.

The third option is to triple the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility). But they’re not even able to pass the current extension of the EFSF. If tomorrow the Germans have to triple the EFSF, that is a political mission impossible.

So my worry is that the EFSF is going to run out of money and then there is not going to be a lender of last resort to backstop Italy and Spain. And that could be a source of a systemic break down of the eurozone, with global financial consequences worse than Lehman. - in Emerging Markets

Related, Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLF)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

High Likelihood Of Another Global Financial Crisis

There is a high likelihood that there is going to be another global financial crisis. - in www.advisorone.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Latest Economic Data Suggests That Recession Is Returning To Most Advanced Economies

The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns – are significant. - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There Will Be Unrest In The US

"As we go into another recession, there will be unrest in the US." - in IB Times

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

We Need Lower Interest Rates in Europe

We need lower interest rates in Europe. We need to lower the value of the euro. We need more fiscal resources. We need three times as much resources in Italy and Spain. - in Economic Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Thinking The Problems Of The Eurozone Are Going To Go Away Is Delusional

These shocks are going to keep on occurring. Thinking the problems of the Eurozone are going to go away is delusional. The risk is actually that there is going be deceleration and the beginning of an economic contraction. - in Economic Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

"Operation Twist" May Worsen The Credit Crunch

Operation Twist may worsen the credit crunch as it will reduce banks' net interest margin . Unintended consequences...

Tickers: JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank Of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS);

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Do We Need Celestial Divine Intervention?

Yes, we now need celestial divine intervention as we are running out of policy rabbits... MERKEL SAYS SHE, POPE SPOKE ABOUT FINANCIAL MARKETS. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Latest Economic Data Suggests That Recession Is Returning To Most Advanced Economies

The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns are significant. - in Reuters

Tickers, ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSE:SDS), iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSE:EWJ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE:EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

QE3 Unlikely To Lead To Robust Asset Reflation

QE3 can't lead to robust asset reflation unless, like summer '10, macro news are positive. But as we double-dip surprises will be downside. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Benefits Of Long Flights: Quiet Reading

Benefits of long flights: quiet reading. I read the first 700 pages of Sylvia Nasar's Grand Pursuit on the flight to Johansburg. A must read book. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Must Begin An Orderly Default & Return To The Drachma

Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, low competitiveness and ever-deepening depression. Exacerbated by a draconian fiscal austerity, its public debt is heading towards 200 per cent of gross domestic product. To escape, Greece must now begin an orderly default, voluntarily exit the eurozone and return to the drachma.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

We Are Entering A Recession

In August 0% jobs snd retail sales growth. September looks worse based on initial unemployment claims and other indicators. We are entering a recession. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

RTL Video: Euro Zone Crisis

Europe has been kicking the can down the road: RTL Video

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

How Deep Will The Recession Be?

At this point the question is not double dip or not but rather how deep the recession will be: answer depends on policy response & Euro Zone crisis. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Stagnate

Depressed consumers in a funk as jobs scarce, wages falling, double-dip coming. Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnate. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There Was No Income Growth In 15 Years

US yearly median household income at its lowest level since 1996. No income growth in 15 years as inequality at 1929 level. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A New Book To Read

I look forward to reading Sylvia Nasar's new book published today.

Excerpt: How to Prevent Economic Crises - Bloomberg

Some Members May Eventually Exit The Monetary Union

Orderly mechanisms for exit from the Eurozone should be designed to reduce collateral damage. Some members may eventually exit the monetary union. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP) iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI) National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE)

ECB Still Obsessed With Inflation

ECB impeccably obsessed with inflation and not caring about growth or financial stability. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

ECB And Germany Are Splitting

Stark resigning, after Weber, would be sign of ECB becoming more sensible. But also Weidman voted against ECB bond purchases. ECB-GER split. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

EUR/USD Should Be Below 1.1000 To Save PIIGS

EUR should be below 1.10 to save PIIGS. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Only By Moving Towards Full Integration Now Can Europe Save Itself

After many months of muddling through - but not getting at the systemic roots of the economic, fiscal and financial crisis - Europe is at tipping point.

If it continues any longer with the status quo of dithering instead of decisiveness, the euro zone will break up and its national economies will weaken. Only by moving towards full integration - now - can Europe save itself. - Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Berggruen September 09, 2011

If We Get A Nasty Global Recession, Equities Are Going To Be Hurt Big Time

If we see a nasty global recession, then risky assets, starting with equities, are going to hurt and going to hurt big time. - in Bloomberg.com

Tickers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

We Need To Restore Growth Today Or Risk Another Great Depression

You need to restore economic growth, not five years from now, you need to restore it today. In the short term, we need to do massive stimulus, otherwise there’s going to be another Great Depression. Things are getting worse and the big difference between now and a few years ago is that this time around we’re running out of policy bullets. - in Bloomberg

I Thought A Few Months Ago That The Perfect Storm Would Be In 2013

I thought a few months ago that the perfect storm would be 2013. But now, the economic weakness in the U.S., euro zone and the U.K. is front loaded. So we’re going to double dip earlier. The climax of it could be 2013, or it could be already earlier. It depends on what policy tools are available. - in Bloomberg

Tickers: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index ETF (NYSE:EWU)

Italy's Crisis Is One Of Confidence As Much As Fundamentals

Italy's crisis is one of confidence as much as fundamentals. Markets lost faith in the credibility of Italy's government leader, Berlusconi.

In all Eurozone crisis countries government change: Greece, Ireland, Portugal; in Spain elections/change coming. The only one stalling is Italy. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Swiss National Bank Action Pre-Empts Additional Inflows Into The Swiss Franc

Swiss National Bank (SNB) action pre-empts additional inflows into the swiss franc (CHF) from expected ECB policy easing and/or signal of easing bias this week.

SNB decision to prevent the CHF from appreciating is a massive unlimited QE operation as it requires unlimited unsterilized FX intervention. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

If Berlusconi Was Gone Tomorrow, Italian Spreads Would Be 50-100 basis Points Lower

“I think Italy has to do it, fiscal austerity, and even if they do it, the markets are going to be nervous about the credibility if this government. I think that if Berlusconi was gone tomorrow, Italian spreads, even with the same policies, would be 50-100 basis points lower." - in CNBC

The ECB Has To Reverse Its Biggest Mistake Ever

The ECB has to reverse this week its biggest mistake ever, the rate hike that sharply worsened the EZ crisis - in CNBC

Italy Would Lose Market Access Without The ECB Bond Purchases

Most Italian political leaders at Villa d'Este still dithering and unaware that Italy would lose market access without ECB's bond purchase bailout. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter account

Europe: Dis-integration Or More Integration?

When a crisis threatens Europe with dis-integration the eventual policy response is greater integration. Will this be the outcome again? - in NR`s Official Twitter

Euro Zone Problems Are Going To Get Worse, Not Better

Euro zone problems are going to get worse, not better. We are in this vicious circle which is likely to have systemic effects in the euro region. Unless there is economic growth anything Italy is going to do on the fiscal side won't be sufficient. - at a press conference in Cernobbio, Italy

No More Policy Bullets

"Every time we had an economic downturn and a market downturn, we had all the policy bullets, we'd take another policy rabbit out of the hat and try to restimulate the economy and the market, but this time around we'll have fiscal austerity throughout advanced economies, our ability to backstop banks and financial institutions is limited by the fact that there is resistance to it (and) not every country can weaken their currency." - in the Ambrosetti Forum

We Are In A Worse Situation Than We Were In 2008

“We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.” - in CNBC Related: Bank Of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Banco Santander (STD), Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale

Eurozone Manufacturing Is Contracting

"Eurozone PMI two-year low of 49.0 in Aug. New orders are down in all countries." - EZ manufacturing is clearly contracting. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Global Slowdown Hurting China

Chinese PMI New Export Order Index down well below 50. G7 & global slowdown hurting. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

QE3: The Question Is Not If, But When

The issue is not if/whether the Fed will go for QE3 but only when. Most likely the first step will be on Sept 21st at the next FOMC meeting.

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (+NASDAQ:QQQ)

When Stocks & Bonds Differ, Who Is Correct?

When stocks & bonds differ, who is correct on economy? Look at Japan says Legland of SocGen. & the answer is: the bond market has it right.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Friday`s Employment Report: Non-Farm Payrolls May Be Close To Zero Or Even Negative

Based on the latest macro data ISM may have a below 50 print (manufacturing contraction) while Non-Farm Payrolls may be close to zero or even negative. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

US Treasuries: Very Low Growth & Inflation For The Time Being

Bill Gross now bullish on US Treasuries as "new normal plus" implies very low growth and also low inflation for time being. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

There Were Many Episodes Of High Inflation In Gold Regimes

"(There were) many episodes of high inflation in gold regimes through history due to debasement of gold coins and or shocks to gold supply via discoveries." - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

Gold Is Not A Currency.

3 required roles of a currency:

1. Means of Payment
2. Unit of Account
3. Store of Value

Gold today is not a currency as it is NOT 1. & 2.

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

BoJ Already In Quantitative Easing Mode

BoJ already in QE with 100bn fund for forex intervention to stop rise of Yen. More to come as economy slumps. - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWJ)

Draghi`s First Policy Action As New ECB President Will Be To Cut Rates

Pragmatic Draghi's first policy action, as new ECB President, will be to cut - not raise - the policy rate and have easier monetary policy. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Expectations For Bernanke`s Speech

Fed to proceed with QE3 by year end at the latest, as the economy double dips. Menu of options previewed today without formal announcement. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Growth Forecasts Coming Down

Hatzius/Goldman Sachs, that predicted 4 percent growth for 2011 at year start, is now forecasting growth barely above 1.0 percent for the second half of 2011. - in NR`s Twitter

August Non Farm Payrolls Could Be Close To Zero Or Even Negative

Initial jobless claims up to 417k much more than expected decline. NFP print for August could be close to zero or even negative. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Related: Related: Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS)

Military Study: 75% of Young Americans Not Fit to Join Military

- 74 percent of young americans are unfit for military service: unskilled, with little education, unable to work and compete in a global economy

- 74 percent of Americans aged 17-24 dont qualify for armed service based on no high school degree, drug use, serious criminal, obesity

in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Firms Have Gone On A Capex Strike

Given the fog of uncertainty of tail risks firms have gone on a capex strike and more job shedding; thus a double dip becomes self-full filling. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

When Gold Goes Hyperbolic As Now, It's A Bubble

The higher they go the harder they'll crash: when gold goes hyperbolic as now, it's a bubble. Issue is at which level it crashes? 3K, 4K...? - Business Insider

Related: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

Euro Zone Double Dipping

Euro Zone double dipping: PMIs down and in contraction, consumer confidence collapsing, investors confidence (ZEW) plunging, banks and governments stressed. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Is Capitalism Doomed?

The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns.

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to reflate asset prices and trigger economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus, near-zero interest rates, two rounds of “quantitative easing,” ring-fencing of bad debt, and trillions of dollars in bailouts and liquidity provision for banks and financial institutions: officials tried them all. Now they have run out of rabbits.

Fiscal policy currently is a drag on economic growth in both the eurozone and the UK. Even in the US, state and local governments, and now the federal government, are cutting expenditure and reducing transfer payments. Soon enough, they will be raising taxes.

Another round of bank bailouts is politically unacceptable and economically unfeasible: most governments, especially in Europe, are so distressed that bailouts are unaffordable; indeed, their sovereign risk is actually fueling concern about the health of Europe’s banks, which hold most of the increasingly shaky government paper.

Nor could monetary policy help very much. Quantitative easing is constrained by above-target inflation in the eurozone and UK. The US Federal Reserve will likely start a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but it will be too little too late. Last year’s $600 billion QE2 and $1 trillion in tax cuts and transfers delivered growth of barely 3% for one quarter. Then growth slumped to below 1% in the first half of 2011. QE3 will be much smaller, and will do much less to reflate asset prices and restore growth.

Currency depreciation is not a feasible option for all advanced economies: they all need a weaker currency and better trade balance to restore growth, but they all cannot have it at the same time. So relying on exchange rates to influence trade balances is a zero-sum game. Currency wars are thus on the horizon, with Japan and Switzerland engaging in early battles to weaken their exchange rates. Others will soon follow.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Italy and Spain are now at risk of losing market access, with financial pressures now mounting on France, too. But Italy and Spain are both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out. For now, the European Central Bank will purchase some of their bonds as a bridge to the eurozone’s new European Financial Stabilization Facility. But, if Italy and/or Spain lose market access, the EFSF’s €440 billion ($627 billion) war chest could be depleted by the end of this year or early 2012.

Then, unless the EFSF pot were tripled – a move that Germany would resist – the only option left would become an orderly but coercive restructuring of Italian and Spanish debt, as has happened in Greece. Coercive restructuring of insolvent banks’ unsecured debt would be next. So, although the process of deleveraging has barely started, debt reductions will become necessary if countries cannot grow or save or inflate themselves out of their debt problems.

So Karl Marx, it seems, was partly right in arguing that globalization, financial intermediation run amok, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct (though his view that socialism would be better has proven wrong). Firms are cutting jobs because there is not enough final demand. But cutting jobs reduces labor income, increases inequality and reduces final demand.

Recent popular demonstrations, from the Middle East to Israel to the UK, and rising popular anger in China – and soon enough in other advanced economies and emerging markets – are all driven by the same issues and tensions: growing inequality, poverty, unemployment, and hopelessness. Even the world’s middle classes are feeling the squeeze of falling incomes and opportunities.

To enable market-oriented economies to operate as they should and can, we need to return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of laissez-faire and voodoo economics and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Both are broken.

The right balance today requires creating jobs partly through additional fiscal stimulus aimed at productive infrastructure investment. It also requires more progressive taxation; more short-term fiscal stimulus with medium- and long-term fiscal discipline; lender-of-last-resort support by monetary authorities to prevent ruinous runs on banks; reduction of the debt burden for insolvent households and other distressed economic agents; and stricter supervision and regulation of a financial system run amok; breaking up too-big-to-fail banks and oligopolistic trusts.

Over time, advanced economies will need to invest in human capital, skills and social safety nets to increase productivity and enable workers to compete, be flexible and thrive in a globalized economy. The alternative is – like in the 1930s – unending stagnation, depression, currency and trade wars, capital controls, financial crisis, sovereign insolvencies, and massive social and political instability.

The Vicious Circle To Depression

Vicious circle to depression: firms cut jobs as there are not enough sales; but cutting jobs destroys labor income and leads to lower sales. - in TW

Related ETFs and stocks: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Caterpillar (CAT), Wal-Mart (WMT), Ford (F), General Motors (GM)

Nonsense of the Year: "The Obama Stimulus Had No Effect"

Myth / Nonsense of the Year: "The Obama stimulus had no effect".

Rather it prevented the Great Recession from turning into Great Depression 2.0. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

We Have Manic Depressive Markets

Manic depressive markets are in risk-off & risk-on mode. Today risk-off. In next few months mostly risk-off as the double dips materializes. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Topics: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

The Difference Between A Double Dip And A Depression

What's the difference between a Double Dip and a Depression? A hole so deep you cant dig yourself out of it. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Officials have run out of rabbits.

he massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns.

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to reflate asset prices and trigger economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus, near-zero interest rates, two rounds of “quantitative easing,” ring-fencing of bad debt, and trillions of dollars in bailouts and liquidity provision for banks and financial institutions: officials tried them all. Now they have run out of rabbits. - in Project-Syndicate

MerOzy: No Euro Bonds For Now

MerkOzy rule out E-bonds "for now". That leaves the option open when market pressure & EFSF maxing out puts mores pressure on italian and spanish spreads. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

We Are Not Going Back To The Gold Standard Any Time Soon

"40 years ago the Bretton Woods regime collapsed and the US went formally off gold. And we will not go back to a gold standard any time soon." - in NR`s Twitter

Related: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Novagold (NG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG)

Eurozone At Stall Speed

Eurozone at stall speed: Second quarter growth at 0.2 percent (0.8 percent annualized). Germany even worse at 0.1 percent. Third quarter looks worse given more tail risks in July /August. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

I Think There Is A Risk That This Is The Second Leg Of What Happened During The Great Depression

We’re not there yet but I think there is a risk that this is the second leg of what happened during the Great Depression. We had a severe economic and financial crisis, then we kicked the can down the road and have too much private debt—households, banks, governments.

You cannot solve the problem with liquidity. At some point where there is too much debt either you grow your way out of...either you save yourself out of it...or you can inflate your way out of the debt problem, but that has a lot of collateral damage.

“We’re not doing it. We’re creating zombie households, zombie banks and zombie governments, and you can have a depression. - in CNBC

Karl Marx Said It Right. At Some Point Capitalism Can Self-Destruct Itself.

Karl Marx said it right. At some point capitalism can self-destruct itself because you cannot keep on shifting income from labor to capital without having excess capacity and a lack of aggregate demand. That’s what’s happening. We thought the markets work. They’re not working. - in CNBC

This Is Not The Time To Be In Risky Assets

“We don’t know whether this volatility is temporary and things are going to improve or whether there’s going to be a nasty recession and another 30-40% fall in equity prices. So until the fog of uncertainty is resolved, my view is that it’s better to be safe rather than sorry. This is not the time to be in risky assets.” - in The Big Interview

Taxes For The Rich

Each time I argue higher taxes for rich an idiot replies: "Why dont you send a check to the IRS?" Can`t reduce deficit alone; gotta rise taxes. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Most Advanced Economies Are On The Verge Of A Double-Dip Recession

The recent massive volatility in global financial markets and sharp equity market correction—bordering on a bear market in some countries—signal that most advanced economies are on the verge of a double-dip recession. - in RGE.com

Related ETFs and stocks: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), United States Oil Fund (USO), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Caterpillar (CAT)

This Is Not The Time To Be In Risky Assets

The Big Interview: Economist Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent, and the next two to three months will reveal the economy’s direction. In an interview with WSJ’s Simon Constable, Roubini also says he’s putting his money in cash. “This is not the time to be in risky assets,” he says.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), United States Oil Fund (USO)

The Consequences Of Rising Income & Wealth Inequality

Consequence of rising income/wealth inequality: riots in Middle East, Israel, UK & popular anger in China. Will they start in the US too? - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

ECB Should Slash Interest Rates to Zero

The European Central Bank should reduce rates to zero, and make big purchases of government bonds. - in FT.com

Manic Markets

Manic Markets: one second is "Fed is not doing enough" & markets sharply down; next sec is "the Fed will rescue us" & markets sharply up - in NR`s Official Twitter

Economic Policy: We Have Run Out Of Rabbits To Pull Out Of Hats

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to trigger asset reflation and economic recovery. Zero policy rates, QE1, QE2, credit easing, fiscal stimulus, ring-fencing, liquidity provision to the tune of trillions of dollars and bailing out banks and financial institutions - all have been tried. But now we have run out of rabbits to pull out of hats. - in FT.com

Treasuries Moved Up After The Downgrade

In Friday Bloomberg interview I argued that Treasury yields would go DOWN not up following the S&P downgrade. Case closed.

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)

QE3 Won't Make A Difference

"QE3 won't make a difference." - in Bloomberg TV

S&P Downgraded The Fed, Should Downgrade The ECB To Junk

Since S&P downgraded the Fed that is now holding AA+ Treasuries it should downgrade the ECB to junk as it holds lotsa BBB to CCC PIIGS debt. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Definition Of Crisis

Definition of "crisis": when officials need to huddle up on a weekend before Asia opening to take decisions and do statements as turmoil rages. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Until Now, We Have Back-Stopped The States Through The Federal Budget To Make Sure That They Don’t Blow Up

“Until now, we have back-stopped the states through the federal budget – transfer payments of a variety of sorts to make sure that they don’t blow up. At this point, the political willingness to do more of it is limited.” - in Forbes

Bloomberg Video: U.S. May Face Recession

Latest Bloomberg video interview - Watch here

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, a New York University professor and the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, talks about the possibility of a U.S. recession. Roubini, speaking from Grand Lake Stream, Maine, with Michael McKee and Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and the July jobs report released today. (Source: Bloomberg)

QE1, QE2 And QE3

QE1 was mostly agencies — Fannie and Freddie, QE2 was treasuries mostly. QE3 could be state and local debt.” - in Forbes Blog

Lousy Job Report

Lousy job report: payrolls gotta rise by >150k to prevent unemp rate from rising: it fell to 9.1% only because 200K folks left labor force - in NR`s Official Twitter

There Is 70% Chance Of Italy Seeking Aid

"According to Nouriel Roubini, there is 70% chance of Italy seeking aid. (La Repubblica)" - in Proactive Investors UK

Related investment vehicles: iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI) , iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP)

QE3 Started In Japan & Switzerland

QE3 started in Japan & Switzerland via fx action &/or monetary easing. Fed will eventually get to QE3 but it will be too little too late. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWJ), iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund(ETF) (NYSE:EWL)

The ECB Should Be Cutting Rates

The ECB not should not just hold rates; it should lower them to save Italy, Spain and stop the deepening recession in the periphery of the Eurozone. RGE's long-standing view that Spain and Italy had a high probability of losing market access is on the verge of materializing. - in NR`s Official Twitter Account

Related investment vehicles: iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWI) , iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWP)

Bad Economic Data, Eurozone Crisis. No Wonder Markets Are Free Falling.

Lousy GDP, depressed housing, plunging ISM, falling consumption, job losses, fiscal drag, Eurozone crisis. No wonder now markets are free falling. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related ETF s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

G3 Economies Are Running Out Of Policy Bullets

G3 economies are running out of policy bullets: fiscal drag, inability to bailout banks by distressed sovereigns, limited effects of more QE.

Double-Dip Risk At 30 Percent

US economy close to stall speed and pig-headed front-loaded fiscal austerity making growth even worse and raising double-dip risk to 30 percent.

Related ETF s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

Over-Investment In China

China train crash is signal of the excesses of over-investment: 10 thousand miles of high speed trains planned by an insolvent Railway Ministry - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

We Have Dual Speed Growth In Australia

Dual speed growth in Australia where resource sectors & regions are booming while retail/housing is weak. - In NR`s Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (ETF) (EWA)

This Isn`t A Soft Patch

Stall speed in the economy: Q2 growth down to 1.3 percent and Q1 growth revised to 0.4 percent. And Q3 starting on weak note. This isn't a soft patch. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuries ETF (TBT), ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasuries ETF (PST), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO)

The Bond Market Beauty Contest

Bond market is a beauty contest about the least ugly:CDS spreads surging in Italy/Spain while debt ceiling saga isn't hurting US Treasuries. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: Banco Santander (STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BBVA), UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (BIT:ISP), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BIT:BMPS), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Republicans Pretend To Be Born-Again Debt Virgins When They Fed The Beast

Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 times, Bush 7 times by 4 trillion dollars. Now Republicans pretend to be born-again debt virgins when they fed the beast. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

I See The Chances That Greece Or Portugal Will Leave The Euro Zone At 30 Percent

In a few years the current rescue plan for Portugal will break down. The same holds for Ireland.

Euro-zone politicians may muddle through for another five years, but ultimately they will face very touch decisions. I see the chances that Greece or Portugal will leave the euro zone at 30 percent. - in Die Zeit, german newspaper

Related Tickers: Bank of Ireland (ADR) (NYSE:IRE) Allied Irish Banks, plc. (ADR) (NYSE:AIB) Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:STD) Barclays PLC (ADR) (NYSE:BCS) Lloyds TSB Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:LYG) Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (ADR) (NYSE:RBS) HSBC Holdings plc (ADR) (NYSE:HBC)

Asian Financial Centers

Shanghai is still a long way in rivaling Hong Kong and Singapore as major financial center. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (ETF) (EWS), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (ETF) (EWH), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

The Problem Of Sovereign Risk Will Be A Serious One For Many Advanced Economies

The recovery has been so weak because this was not a traditional recession, but was a recession caused by a financial crisis brought on by too much debt and leverage first in the private sector and now in the public sector.

Tickers: SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), IShares Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQ), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)

The problem of sovereign risk will be a serious one for many advanced economies for many years to come. - in MarketWatch.com

I Don't Think The U.S. Will Default

There are about eight days until the deadline. My baseline scenario is still an agreement will be reached. I don't think the U.S. will default. - in a Shanghai Conference

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Raise The Ceiling!

Almost no democracy has a debt ceiling. This US farce is nonsense. A decade of bipartisan deficits and tax cuts led us here. Raise the ceiling! - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Any Deficit Reduction Requires Tax Hikes

Federal taxes were 20 percent of GDP at time of a balanced budget. Now down to 14 percent the lowest in 60 years. So any deficit reduction requires tax hikes. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

China’s Economy Is Overheating Now But Over Time Its Current Overinvestment Will Prove Deflationary Both Domestically And Globally

I recently took two trips to China just as the government launched its 12th Five-Year Plan to rebalance the country’s long-term growth model. My visits deepened my view that there is a potentially destabilizing contradiction between China’s short- and medium-term economic performance.

China’s economy is overheating now, but, over time, its current overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally. Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible – most likely after 2013 – China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Instead of focusing on securing a soft landing today, Chinese policymakers should be worrying about the brick wall that economic growth may hit in the second half of the quinquennium. - in Project Syndicate

Related: China Mobile (CHL), Aluminum Crop Of China (ACH), China Life Insurance (LFC), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)

The Biggest Challenges Advanced Economies Will Be Facing

"So the problems of sovereign risk, of reducing budget deficits and of stabilizing public debt are not just challenges for the eurozone periphery; they will be the biggest challenges advanced economies will be facing." - in MSNBC.com

Related Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

The Housing Market

The housing "spring season" ended into a worsening depression: existing home sales collapsing, cancellations surging, prices falling faster. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related: Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL), DR Horton (DHI)

The Eurozone Needs Policies To Restart Economic To Restart Economic Growth On Its Periphery.

"Finally, the eurozone needs policies to restart economic growth on its periphery. Without growth, any austerity and reform will deliver only social unrest and the constant threat of a political backlash, without restoring debt sustainability. To revive growth, the ECB needs to stop raising interest rates and reverse course. The eurozone should also pursue a policy – partially via looser monetary policy – that weakens the value of the euro significantly and restores the periphery’s competitiveness. And Germany should delay its austerity plan, as the last thing that the eurozone needs is a massive fiscal drag." - in Project Syndicate

The Eurozone Crisis Is Reaching Its Climax

The eurozone crisis is reaching its climax. Greece is insolvent. Portugal and Ireland have recently seen their bonds downgraded to junk status. Spain could still lose market access as political uncertainty adds to its fiscal and financial woes. Financial pressure on Italy is now mounting. - in The Eurozone's last stand

Greece: A Maturity Extension Would Still Provide Massive Debt Relief

Even if the face value of the Greek debt were not reduced, a maturity extension would still provide massive debt relief - on a present-value basis - to Greece as a euro of debt owed 30 years from now is worth much less today than the same euro owed a year from now. Moreover, a maturity extension resolves rollover risk for the coming decades. - in "The Eurozone's last stand"

Related Tickers: Related Tickers: National Bank Of Greece (NBG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Societe Generale SA (EPA:GLE), BNP Paribas SA (Public, EPA:BNP), Credit Agricole SA (EPA:ACA) Deutsche Bank AG (ETR:DBK), Banco Comercial Portugues SA (ELI:BCP)

The advantage of a par bond is that Greece's creditors - banks, insurance companies, and pension funds - would be able and allowed to continue valuing their Greek bonds at 100 cents on the euro, thereby avoiding massive losses on their balance sheets. That, in turn, would sharply contain the risk of financial contagion.

Roubini Says Italy Needs a New Government, Repubblica Reports

Roubini Says Italy Needs a New Government, Repubblica Reports: LINK

Greece: There Is No Likely Scenario In Which Public Debt Sustainability Can Be Restored Without A Restructuring

Even if Greece were to fully implement the draconian 10 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment program imposed by the IMF and the European Union, there is no likely scenario in which public debt sustainability could be restored without a restructuring. - in Roubini.com

Related Tickers: National bank Of Greece (NBG), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), UBS AG (USA) (NYSE:UBS), Societe Generale SA (EPA:GLE), BNP Paribas SA (Public, EPA:BNP), Credit Agricole SA (Public, EPA:ACA) Deutsche Bank AG (ETR:DBK), Banco Comercial Portugues SA (ELI:BCP)

CNBC Video Interview: July

Topics: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman & co-founder, explains why there's a need for more fiscal stimulus, and the "perfect storm" of threats that could slam the economy by 2013.

I See Every Economy In The World Trying To Push Their Problems To The Future

I see every economy in the world trying to push their problems to the future. We start with private debt, public debt, supra-national debt—we're kicking the can down the road and eventually this is going to come to a head in 2013. - in CNBC

Related Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

The Second Half Recovery Is Going To Disappoint On The Downside

If we don't have enough job creation there's not enough labor income. Therefore, there's not enough consumption and consumer companies are going to be depressed. Therefore, the recovery is going to remain weak. The markets are expecting now a robust recovery in the second half of the year. I think the recovery is going to disappoint on the downside. - in CNBC

Related tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

The Perfect Storm

My prediction for the perfect storm is not this year or next year but 2013, because everybody is kicking the can down the road. We now have a problem in the US after the election if we don't resolve our fiscal problems. China is overheating...eventually it's going to have a hard landing. - in CNBC

Related tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

One In Three Chance Of A "Perfect Storm"

There is a one in three chance a "perfect storm" of fiscal woe in the United States, a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring, and stagnation in Japan will converge to stunt global economic growth beginning in 2013. - in Boston.com

Tickers: Tickers: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWJ)