The Rise Of Protectionism

"Conflicts over trade liberalisation have recently pitted the United States, the European Union, Brazil, China, India, and other emerging economies against one another as each government looks to protect its own workers and industries, often at the expense of outsiders. Officials in many European countries have complained that Ireland's corporate tax rate is too low and last year pushed the Irish government to accept a bailout it needed but did not want. German voters are grousing about the need to bail out poorer European countries, and the citizens of southern European nations are attacking their governments' unwillingness to continue spending beyond their means." in www.cpifinancial.net

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Oil Price Shocks Have Led To Recessions Before

"Oil price shocks have led to US recessions in 1974-75, 1980, 1990, 2001 and 2008-2009. 3 of these were caused by Mid East political shocks" - in Twitter

Oil Was Rising Even Before The Recent Political Shocks In The Middle East

"Even before the recent political shocks in the Middle East, oil prices had increased above 90 dollars a barrel, driven not only by the fundamentals of a global economic recovery but also by non-fundamental factors:

- a wall of liquidity chasing assets and commodities in emerging markets amid near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing in advanced economies;
- momentum and herding behaviour (as in 2007-08);
- and limited and inelastic supply of new oil capacity"

in The Globe And Mail

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL), Schlumberger Limited. (NYSE:SLB), Repsol YPF, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:REP)

Libya, Oil Prices And Stagflation Risks

"Gaddafi's regime is collapsing, Mid East revolutions spreading and oil prices are sharply up again. Stagflationary risks are rising" - in Twitter

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

Middle East Political Turmoil And Oil Prices

"Even regional political turmoil that does not disrupt oil supplies directly can increase prices" - in seeking alpha

CNBC Video: Roubini On Squawk Box

There Are A Significant Number Of Downside Risks

"Usually there is not a 1-to-1 relationship between the stock market and the economy. This year some things are going well. The economy is improving, emerging markets are doing well, the corporates are doing well so far. But there are a significant number of downside risks."

in CNBC.com

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The Path Of Least Resistance Until After 2012 Are Going To Be Budget Deficits Above A Trillion Dollars

"Democrats are against reforming entitlements. The Republicans are against raising any taxes. The path of least resistance until after 2012 are going to be budget deficits above a trillion dollars." in CNBC.com

So Much For The Eurozone Crisis Being Contained

"Portugal on verge of losing market access; Irish bailout in trouble; WestLB rescue in trouble. So much for Eurozone crisis being contained" - in Twitter

Could Egypt Turn Into A Turkey?

"Could Egypt turn into a Turkey (stable democracy run by moderate islamists)? It took decades of secular rule to get current state in Turkey" - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Turkey Index Fund (NYSE:TUR) and Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE:EGPT)

Why This Is A G-Zero World

Today, the United States lacks the resources to continue as the primary provider of global public goods. Europe is fully occupied for the moment with saving the eurozone. Japan is likewise tied down with complex political and economic problems at home. None of these powers’ governments has the time, resources, or domestic political capital needed for a new bout of international heavy lifting. Meanwhile, there are no credible answers to transnational challenges without the direct involvement of emerging powers such as Brazil, China, and India. Yet these countries are far too focused on domestic development to welcome the burdens that come with new responsibilities abroad.

We are now living in a G-Zero world, one in which no single country or bloc of countries has the political and economic leverage -- or the will -- to drive a truly international agenda. The result will be intensified conflict on the international stage over vitally important issues, such as international macroeconomic coordination, financial regulatory reform, trade policy, and climate change. This new order has far-reaching implications for the global economy, as companies around the world sit on enormous stockpiles of cash, waiting for the current era of political and economic uncertainty to pass. Many of them can expect an extended wait. - in Foreign Affairs

A G-Zero World

"Over the past several months, the expanded group of leading economies has gone from a would-be concert of nations to a cacophony of competing voices as the urgency of the financial crisis has waned and the diversity of political and economic values within the group has asserted itself." - Bremmer and Roubini wrote in the March/April edition of Foreign Affairs

Emerging Markets Are Behind The Curve In Terms Of Monetary Tightning.

"Some emerging markets are overheating and as inflation is accelerating, they are behind the curve in terms of policy tightening. In China, Russia and many other emerging-market economies that are emphasizing growth over fighting inflation, if inflation gets out of hand, they have to tighten more in the middle or later part of this year.” - in Bloomberg

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX) , iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Oil Prices, Middle East Tensions & The World Economy

"Writing in the Financial Times, Roubini said the recession that began in the autumn of 2008 was caused not only by the Lehman Brothers insolvency but also by the fact that oil prices had doubled in the previous 12 months.

While no one should feel any sympathy for rulers associated with corruption, poverty, high unemployment and inequality, recent experience of “free elections” and “democracy” in the Middle East has been sobering, Roubini wrote.

The U.S. invasion of Iraq has brought civil war and an unstable pseudo-democracy, now at risk of falling under the control of radical and Shia groups, he said.

Because of the latest turbulence, oil prices are close to $100 a barrel and more radical regimes in Egypt and Tunisia can’t be ruled out; meanwhile, the world economy is recovering only tentatively from its worst crisis in decades, Roubini concluded." - in Bloomberg

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

Changes In The Middle East

"I am all for democracy/elections & against autocrats. But so far change in Middle East (Iran, Gaza, Iraq and Lebanon) hasn't led to stable democracy." - in Twitter

Middle East Has Two Thirds Of World`s Oil Reserves

"Middle East has two thirds of world oil reserves and almost half of the gas reserves. So political instability there impacts global economies/markets." - in Twitter

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG)

Three Past Global Recessions Caused By Middle East Political & Oil Shocks: `73, `79 And `90

"Three past global recessions caused by MidEast political & oil shocks: Yom Kippur War '73; Iran's revolution '79; Iraq invaiding Kuwait '90" - in Twitter

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)