May 10, 2011

The Path Of Greek Public Debt Is Manifestly Unsustainable

The path of Greek public debt is manifestly unsustainable. Fiscal austerity and structural reforms are necessary but will not suffice.

In the best-case scenario, incorporating a 10 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment and structural reforms: Greek public debt to GDP peaks around 160 percent before “stabilizing.”

It is more likely that the debt ratio will exceed 160 percent and, left untended, will render market access both before and even after 2013 severely limited (or effectively non-existent). - in FT Alphaville

Related: National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NBG)