We Have Dual Speed Growth In Australia

Dual speed growth in Australia where resource sectors & regions are booming while retail/housing is weak. - In NR`s Twitter

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This Isn`t A Soft Patch

Stall speed in the economy: Q2 growth down to 1.3 percent and Q1 growth revised to 0.4 percent. And Q3 starting on weak note. This isn't a soft patch. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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The Bond Market Beauty Contest

Bond market is a beauty contest about the least ugly:CDS spreads surging in Italy/Spain while debt ceiling saga isn't hurting US Treasuries. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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Republicans Pretend To Be Born-Again Debt Virgins When They Fed The Beast

Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 times, Bush 7 times by 4 trillion dollars. Now Republicans pretend to be born-again debt virgins when they fed the beast. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

I See The Chances That Greece Or Portugal Will Leave The Euro Zone At 30 Percent

In a few years the current rescue plan for Portugal will break down. The same holds for Ireland.

Euro-zone politicians may muddle through for another five years, but ultimately they will face very touch decisions. I see the chances that Greece or Portugal will leave the euro zone at 30 percent. - in Die Zeit, german newspaper

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Asian Financial Centers

Shanghai is still a long way in rivaling Hong Kong and Singapore as major financial center. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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The Problem Of Sovereign Risk Will Be A Serious One For Many Advanced Economies

The recovery has been so weak because this was not a traditional recession, but was a recession caused by a financial crisis brought on by too much debt and leverage first in the private sector and now in the public sector.

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The problem of sovereign risk will be a serious one for many advanced economies for many years to come. - in MarketWatch.com

I Don't Think The U.S. Will Default

There are about eight days until the deadline. My baseline scenario is still an agreement will be reached. I don't think the U.S. will default. - in a Shanghai Conference

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Raise The Ceiling!

Almost no democracy has a debt ceiling. This US farce is nonsense. A decade of bipartisan deficits and tax cuts led us here. Raise the ceiling! - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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Any Deficit Reduction Requires Tax Hikes

Federal taxes were 20 percent of GDP at time of a balanced budget. Now down to 14 percent the lowest in 60 years. So any deficit reduction requires tax hikes. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

China’s Economy Is Overheating Now But Over Time Its Current Overinvestment Will Prove Deflationary Both Domestically And Globally

I recently took two trips to China just as the government launched its 12th Five-Year Plan to rebalance the country’s long-term growth model. My visits deepened my view that there is a potentially destabilizing contradiction between China’s short- and medium-term economic performance.

China’s economy is overheating now, but, over time, its current overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally. Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible – most likely after 2013 – China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Instead of focusing on securing a soft landing today, Chinese policymakers should be worrying about the brick wall that economic growth may hit in the second half of the quinquennium. - in Project Syndicate

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The Biggest Challenges Advanced Economies Will Be Facing

"So the problems of sovereign risk, of reducing budget deficits and of stabilizing public debt are not just challenges for the eurozone periphery; they will be the biggest challenges advanced economies will be facing." - in MSNBC.com

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The Housing Market

The housing "spring season" ended into a worsening depression: existing home sales collapsing, cancellations surging, prices falling faster. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

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The Eurozone Needs Policies To Restart Economic To Restart Economic Growth On Its Periphery.

"Finally, the eurozone needs policies to restart economic growth on its periphery. Without growth, any austerity and reform will deliver only social unrest and the constant threat of a political backlash, without restoring debt sustainability. To revive growth, the ECB needs to stop raising interest rates and reverse course. The eurozone should also pursue a policy – partially via looser monetary policy – that weakens the value of the euro significantly and restores the periphery’s competitiveness. And Germany should delay its austerity plan, as the last thing that the eurozone needs is a massive fiscal drag." - in Project Syndicate

The Eurozone Crisis Is Reaching Its Climax

The eurozone crisis is reaching its climax. Greece is insolvent. Portugal and Ireland have recently seen their bonds downgraded to junk status. Spain could still lose market access as political uncertainty adds to its fiscal and financial woes. Financial pressure on Italy is now mounting. - in The Eurozone's last stand

Greece: A Maturity Extension Would Still Provide Massive Debt Relief

Even if the face value of the Greek debt were not reduced, a maturity extension would still provide massive debt relief - on a present-value basis - to Greece as a euro of debt owed 30 years from now is worth much less today than the same euro owed a year from now. Moreover, a maturity extension resolves rollover risk for the coming decades. - in "The Eurozone's last stand"

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The advantage of a par bond is that Greece's creditors - banks, insurance companies, and pension funds - would be able and allowed to continue valuing their Greek bonds at 100 cents on the euro, thereby avoiding massive losses on their balance sheets. That, in turn, would sharply contain the risk of financial contagion.

Roubini Says Italy Needs a New Government, Repubblica Reports

Roubini Says Italy Needs a New Government, Repubblica Reports: LINK

Greece: There Is No Likely Scenario In Which Public Debt Sustainability Can Be Restored Without A Restructuring

Even if Greece were to fully implement the draconian 10 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment program imposed by the IMF and the European Union, there is no likely scenario in which public debt sustainability could be restored without a restructuring. - in Roubini.com

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CNBC Video Interview: July

Topics: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman & co-founder, explains why there's a need for more fiscal stimulus, and the "perfect storm" of threats that could slam the economy by 2013.

I See Every Economy In The World Trying To Push Their Problems To The Future

I see every economy in the world trying to push their problems to the future. We start with private debt, public debt, supra-national debt—we're kicking the can down the road and eventually this is going to come to a head in 2013. - in CNBC

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The Second Half Recovery Is Going To Disappoint On The Downside

If we don't have enough job creation there's not enough labor income. Therefore, there's not enough consumption and consumer companies are going to be depressed. Therefore, the recovery is going to remain weak. The markets are expecting now a robust recovery in the second half of the year. I think the recovery is going to disappoint on the downside. - in CNBC

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The Perfect Storm

My prediction for the perfect storm is not this year or next year but 2013, because everybody is kicking the can down the road. We now have a problem in the US after the election if we don't resolve our fiscal problems. China is overheating...eventually it's going to have a hard landing. - in CNBC

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