Jan 31, 2012

It`s A Very Delicate Global Economy

We live in a world where there is still a huge amount of economic and financial fragility. There is a huge amount of uncertainty — macro, financial, fiscal, sovereign, banking, regulatory, taxation — and there is also geopolitical and political and policy uncertainty.

There are lots of sources of uncertainty from the eurozone, from the Middle East, from the fact that the U.S. is not tackling its own fiscal problem, from the fact that Chinese growth is unbalanced and unsustainable, relying too much on exports and fixed investments and high savings, and not enough on consumption. So it's a very delicate global economy. - in a AP interview

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 30, 2012

A G-20 Or G-Zero World?

This doesn't look like a G20 world; it looks like a G-Zero world. There is disagreement. There is no leadership. In a world where we have the rise of many powers, the United States cannot impose its will. - in Public Service Europe

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Euro Zone Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck. Not only Greece, other countries as well are insolvent.

There`s a 50 percent probability that over the next three to five years the euro zone will break up. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 29, 2012

China: Growth Is Slowing

Export growth is slowing. If they don't do something - stimulus in monetary and fiscal credit - the risk is that the growth will slow down well below 8 per cent. - in Sydney Morning Herald

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 28, 2012

Europe: The Policy Response Is Making The Recession Worse

"The policy response is making the recession worse. What Europe needs is less austerity and more growth." - in The Guardian

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 27, 2012

US 4th Quarter Growth Was Lower Than Forecasts, Likely To Be Revised Even Lower.

US Q4 growth at 2.8 percent lower than optimistic forecasts of 3.5 percent. Also likely to be revised down once better data on small firms/shops are out.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 26, 2012

Europe Needs Massive Monetary Easing

Europe needs massive monetary easing to get out of its debt crisis. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Won`t Be The Last Country To Restructure Its Debt

Greece is going to be the first country to restructure its debt, I don't think it's going to be the last one. - in the WEF, Davos

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 25, 2012

Eurozone Needs Less Austerity And More Growth

“There’s a severe recession in the periphery of the euro zone. Less austerity, more growth, that’s what the euro zone needs today.” - in CNBC

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 24, 2012

I Don`t Own A Car, Boat Or Plane

No car, no boat, no plane. In my free time, I wear blue jeans. I love culture, the visual arts, literature. My only conspicuous consumption is contemporary art, but I usually buy young artists, even before they have gallery representation. I go to their studios. It's a passion, not an investment. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 23, 2012

Problems Facing The Global Economy

Most problems facing the global economy are not temporary or random. - in Forbes.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 22, 2012

Tail Risks In The Global Economy

Last year was a year of risk, volatility, uncertainty and surprises and the question is, ‘Are they going to happen again?’

If you think about all these tail risks about the global economy, the reality is many of them are not temporary. Many of them are not transitory and many of them are not random events. They’re going to be sources of volatility. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 21, 2012

Emerging Markets In Much Better Shape Than Most Advanced Economies

Mexico doing well: low debt, low deficit, low inflation, good growth. Emerging markets in much better shape than most advanced economies.

(Source: Roubini`s Offical Twitter page)

Related, iShares MSCI Mexico Index ETF (EWW), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 20, 2012

Net Exports Will Be A Drag On Growth In 2012

Given anemic growth in domestic demand, America’s only chance to move closer to its potential growth rate would be to reduce its large trade deficit. But net exports will be a drag on growth in 2012.

(Source: Economonitor)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 19, 2012

Mexico: Faster Growth Depends On Structural Reforms

Mexico growth will be moderate in 2012 (3 percent) and below trend given external risks. Faster potential and actual growth depends on structural reforms.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related ETFs, iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 18, 2012

How Europe Can Possibly Grow Its Way Out Of The Debt Crisis?

The underlying picture of economic weakness that has not only worsened but has spread to the core economies raises the question of how Europe can possibly grow its way out of the debt crisis. - in Roubini Global Economics

Related, Eurostoxx 50 Index, Dax Index, Cac 40 Index

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 17, 2012

US Job Growth Is Still Too Mediocre

US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labour income. The US needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month on a consistent basis just to stabilise the unemployment rate. More than 40 per cent of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed, which reduces their chances of ever regaining a decent job. - in The Straits of America

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 16, 2012

What Will The Federal Reserve Do?

Given the bearish outlook for US economic growth, the Fed can be expected to engage in another round of quantitative easing. But the Fed also faces political constraints, and will do too little, and move too late, to help the economy significantly.

Moreover, a vocal minority on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is against further easing. In any case, monetary policy cannot address only liquidity problems – and banks are flush with excess reserves. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 15, 2012

The Housing Market Is Comatose

Even after six years of a housing recession, the sector is comatose. With demand for new homes having fallen by 80 percent relative to the peak, the downward price adjustment is likely to continue in 2012 as the supply of new and existing homes continues to exceed demand. - in Project Syndicate

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 14, 2012

US Economy: The Recent Bounce In Investment Spending Will End

The recent bounce in investment spending (and housing) will end, with bleak prospects for 2012, as tax benefits expire, firms wait out so-called “tail risks” (low-probability, high-impact events), and insufficient final demand holds down capacity-utilization rates. And most capital spending will continue to be devoted to labor-saving technologies, again implying limited job creation. - in Economonitor

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 13, 2012

US Economic Outlook

Macroeconomic indicators for the United States have been better than expected for the last few months. Job creation has picked up. Indicators for manufacturing and services have improved moderately. Even the housing industry has shown some signs of life. And consumption growth has been relatively resilient.

But, despite the favorable data, US economic growth will remain weak and below trend throughout 2012. Why is all the recent economic good news not to be believed?

First, US consumers remain income-challenged, wealth-challenged, and debt-constrained. Disposable income has been growing modestly – despite real-wage stagnation – mostly as a result of tax cuts and transfer payments. This is not sustainable: eventually, transfer payments will have to be reduced and taxes raised to reduce the fiscal deficit. Recent consumption data are already weakening relative to a couple of months ago, marked by holiday retail sales that were merely passable.

At the same time, US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labor income. The US needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month on a consistent basis just to stabilize the unemployment rate. More than 40 percent of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed, which reduces their chances of ever regaining a decent job. Indeed, firms are still trying to find ways to slash labor costs. - in Economonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 11, 2012

Latest Video Interview: Eurozone Concerns


Video Interview, ET NOW.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 10, 2012

India: A Fascinating & Complex Country

Always a pleasure to visit India, a fascinating and complex country. Many important policy challenges while growth is showing some slowdown.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Don’t Be Fooled by the U.S. Data

Don’t be fooled by the recent stronger U.S. economic data: The economy will weaken in 2012. - in RGE

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 6, 2012

Hungary`s Financing Gap

In 2012 Hungary may have a financing gap as large as 10 percent of GDP putting pressure on reserves and currency. (Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 5, 2012

Irish Economy ‘Double-Dipping' as Services Shrink

Ireland's economy is clearly double-dipping. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Eurozone Has No Growth Strategy

New Eurozone fiscal compact will imply even more recessionary front-loaded fiscal austerity both in the PIIGS and core Eurozone. The EZ has no growth strategy.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 3, 2012

2012 Will Be A Bumpy Year For The Global Economy

2012 will be a bumpy year for the global economy: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, “Fasten your seatbelts!” - in Economy Watch

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Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 2, 2012

Fiscal Stimulus & The Positive Multiplier Effect

10 out of 11 empirical/econometric models of the 2008-2010 US fiscal stimulus show a significant positive multiplier effect on GDP and jobs.

(Source: Nouriel Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 1, 2012

The Euro Zone Needs A Real Depreciation In The Periphery

The euro zone needs a real depreciation in the periphery to achieve the restoration of growth, external balance and competitiveness. The periphery needs to have the euro closer to parity with the US dollar.” - at the Ambrosetti Workshop on the shores of Lake Como, Italy

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.