The Growth Is So Low That It Feels Like A Recession

"The growth is so low that it feels like a recession, even if it is not technically a recession"

Nouriel Roubini, in a Seoul Conference

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What Obama Can Do To Prevent A Double Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini is out with a new piece for Foreign Policy on what Obama can do to prevent a double dip recession. It's two pages long, but it can be boiled down really simply:

Eliminate the payroll tax temporarily and reinstall the Bush tax cuts on the rich.

The basic idea? This would spur spending because the working class spends more of their money than the rich do. And what's more it would be deficit neutral (perhaps), and thus wouldn't make people more nervous about breaking the bank.

in www.businessinsider.com

The U.S. Economy Increasingly Looks Vulnerable To Falling Back Into Recession

Roughly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy increasingly looks vulnerable to falling back into recession. The United States is flirting with stall speed, an anemic rate of growth that, if it persists, can lead to collapses in spending, consumer confidence, credit, and other crucial engines of growth.

Call it a "double dip" or the Great Recession, Round II: Whatever the term, we're talking about a negative feedback loop that would be devilishly hard to break.

Nouriel Roubini and Michael Moran, in Foreign Policy

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US Zeitgeist 2010

The Euro At 1.4000 Is A Painful Level For The Euro Region

"Nouriel Roubini, the professor credited with predicting the 2008 economic crisis, expects the European Central Bank to be forced to ease monetary policy further and sees risks of a double dip recession.

Roubini, speaking at the Peterson Institute today in Washington, said that the euro at 1.4000 is a “painful” level for the euro region."

in Bloomberg.com

Home Prices Will Fall Another 10%

Dr. Doom, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, told an American Enterprise Institute forum Wednesday that even though the recession technically ended in June 2009, he believes home prices will fall another 10% and that there is now a 40% chance that the economy will fall back into recession over the next 12 months.

in www.huffingtonpost.com

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There Is A 40% Probability Of A Double-Dip Recession

There is a 40% probability of a double-dip recession, but you don't need one for the global economy to feel like it is in a deep, continuing recession, said Nouriel Roubini, the famous pessimist and economics professor at New York University on Wednesday. He said external shocks, such as another Greek credit crisis, perhaps with problems in Spain, Portugal or Ireland, could trigger the shock needed for a double-dip recession. "You don't need another Lehman story, you don't need a major loss," said Roubini at an American Enterprise Institute event. "You can have death by a thousand cuts."

in CBS MarketWatch

Capital Will Keep Flowing Into Emerging Markets

The global financial crisis sped up the pace of capital inflows into emerging markets, economist Nouriel Roubini said Tuesday.

Speaking at a conference here, he said that if and when advanced economies recover from the global financial crisis, the emerging markets will still see a greater share of capital inflows over the long-term, as participants diversify their investment portfolios, lured by the robust growth forecast for emerging markets.

Many emerging markets, including countries in Latin America such as Chile, have seen their currencies bulge versus the dollar, in part on strong capital inflows.

in WSJ

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China `s Questionable Infrastructure Investments

"You know, I go to China six or seven times a year, and you have brand-new airports three-quarters empty. Highways to nowhere all over the country."

in WSJ

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The Too Big To Fail Problem

“The ‘too big to fail’ problem has become an even too bigger to fail problem. That is what happens when you do mergers that don’t make any sense.”

Nouriel Roubini, Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York

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